Tag Archives: uncertainty

From the perspective of those who work or are interested in finance, it seems obvious that business decisions are a major driver of the business cycle, assuming that policymakers are not doing anything particularly stupid (as in the Euro area in the post-crisis period). The important exception is the housing market, which is dependent upon the willingness of households to borrow insane amounts of money. (However, even this exception is dependent upon the decisions of the financial sector to...

Hayek, Coase and uncertainty. In any case I find it fascinating that the two, Hayek and Coase, both in their own way, brought the impact of uncertainty to the fore in the same year. It’s a shame that economics has never fully embraced, nor realized, the full richness of their ideas. Neither author was willing to step into the world that they clearly understood existed. Hayek was right about universal central planning: it is an impossibility. He was wrong to assert that this implied...

Markets and the economy are increasingly being characterized by one word: certainty. This is likely to worry some investors and market watchers who see over-confidence in the future as a sign that things are about to change. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan indicated that while overall confidence in the economy is sitting right near a 13-year high, “what has changed recently is the degree of certainty with which consumers hold their...

A good example of this is the phrase, "the new normal." At first, economists and policy makers were surprised and perplexed when policy predictions of their models based on historical trends did not turn out. So then they dragged in the concept of "the new normal" in stead of admitting they didn't have a grip on what is actually going on. We see this recently in Janet Yellen's statement that the Fed didn't really understand inflation, like it's not doing what it is supposed to be doing. ...

Proof of uncertainity.Lars P. Syll’s BlogPutting predictions to the testLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

At some point, everyone reaches a crossroads in life: Do you decide to take that job and move to a new country, or stay put? Should you become a parent, or continue your life unencumbered by the needs of children? Instinctively, we try to make these decisions by projecting ourselves into the future, trying to imagine which choice will make us happier. Perhaps we seek counsel or weigh up evidence. We might write out a pro/con list. What we are doing, ultimately, is trying to figure out...