by 11th of November 2024 My Lords, there are many things to welcome in this Budget, particularly on the spending side. I am less keen on some of the tax proposals, which seem to be mean-minded and counterproductive, such as the tax on knowledge. The spending commitments are important because they reverse the disastrous policy of austerity, which has brought our public services and infrastructure close to collapse. Even the IMF, originally a champion of austerity, admitted that it had underestimated what it called austerity’s negative multipliers, which is simply code for it having been disastrously wrong in estimating the negative effects of austerity. The cost of austerity has been severe. Median per capita income is lower than it was in 2010. The public debt to GDP ratio has
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11th of November 2024
My Lords, there are many things to welcome in this Budget, particularly on the spending side. I am less keen on some of the tax proposals, which seem to be mean-minded and counterproductive, such as the tax on knowledge.
The spending commitments are important because they reverse the disastrous policy of austerity, which has brought our public services and infrastructure close to collapse. Even the IMF, originally a champion of austerity, admitted that it had underestimated what it called austerity’s negative multipliers, which is simply code for it having been disastrously wrong in estimating the negative effects of austerity.
The cost of austerity has been severe. Median per capita income is lower than it was in 2010. The public debt to GDP ratio has gone up from 70% to 100%. By far the most important reason for this has been weak economic growth. This means that the Chancellor gets less help from the denominator in the debt to GDP ratio. Austerity has been a crucial cause of low economic growth. It is a vicious circle: cuts in public spending reduce the growth rate, which raises the debt to GDP ratio, which raises the interest rate on government debt, which requires austerity to counter it, and so on. We have to get out of this.
The Chancellor has tried heroically to escape this trap by tweaking the fiscal rules; for example, by reclassifying public sector debt as public sector net financial liabilities. I think that the Government hope to squeeze an extra £50 billion spending headroom from these and other measures. Perhaps one should welcome any sleight of hand which loosens the iron grip of the Treasury.
However, honesty compels me to say that current capital account distinctions in the public sector are full of holes. Are student loans to be counted as assets, even though most of them will never be repaid? There are other questions such as that. The Chancellor will also need to persuade sceptical businessmen that the publicly owned national wealth fund will produce, over the years, net assets rather than net debts. I understand all those things, but economic orthodoxy forces the Chancellor to tell an incomplete story. In her narrative, there is no mention of demand, only supply.
The sagacious Paul Johnson of the IFS warns that if you really want to spend more, you will have to tax more; that is right, but as any economist will tell you, how much more depends on how much spare capacity there is in the economy. Bringing idle plant and labour into use gives you a free lunch. How much spare capacity is there in the British economy? If we add up the inactivity rate and part-time working, it is at least double the headline unemployment rate of 4% or so that we read about, so there is scope to boost demand as well as to improve supply.
For those who want to increase public spending while maintaining fiscal probity, I recommend an ancient piece of fiscal machinery known as the balanced budget multiplier. The idea behind it is that an increase in government spending balanced by an equal increase in taxes yields a positive multiplier—I would be happy to explain why to any noble Lords who find this puzzling. But the last thing the Conservative Party wants to do is to balance the budget by raising taxes; its fiscal zeal is concentrated on austerity. The Labour Party is more open-minded and generous; that is why it is a good thing that Rachel Reeves, and not Jeremy Hunt, is in charge of the Treasury.