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For a complete explanation of this model and how it was developed, please check my @Patreon page https://www.patreon.com/posts/36379285. Like most of my posts there, this is free access, with no paywall.
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| For a complete explanation of this model and how it was developed, please check my @Patreon page https://www.patreon.com/posts/36379285. Like most of my posts there, this is free access, with no paywall. |
Thanks for this Steve.
In addition to the modelling, it would be great for you to draw some conclusions from it.
We also know from navy studies of sailors located on a navy ship that 30% of their sample were asymptomatic carriers.
That was easier, but that basically looked like were all eventually going to die until we get a vaccine. however if you are exposed multiple times without getting it perhaps you never will.
Socialist mag Current Affairs came out with this catchy covid 19 song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAF-YUc2_WI
Yes! Use Minsky! Dynamic models! Could it be modeled with integrated percentiles?
The data is garbage, so won’t it be garbage in-garbage out?
It seems you forgot to multiply by I in Die_old
would be interesting to see the effect of running out of hospital beds.
How would you model/factor for the different/more aggressive strains?
Hi Steve. Just realised that our paper was featured in your demo using Minsky. Thanks!
The paper had since been updated and is now published in Physica D: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167278920302700
Perhaps you ought to pass this along to your patron, if they're still working on the model.
Cheers and take care,
/Mark
Hi Mark, thanks for letting me know. I actually did that work: the Patron's staffer was using a Mac and we have occasional problems with the Mac version of Minsky. I'll return to it when I put together a manual for Minsky later this year.