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Engineers, Finance, and IT Pros: Learn 50+ years of Real Economics in only 7 Weeks. Weekly with me. Learn more: apply.stevekeenfree.com OR Join ~10,000 others in downloading my free 'Funny Money' Bundle (2 books, worth ): new.stevekeenfree.com -- Who is Dr. Steve Keen? Dr. Steve Keen is an influential economist who has dedicated over 50 years to challenging mainstream economic theories. Since his days as a university student, he has been engaged in a David vs. Goliath battle against conventional economic models. Holding a Ph.D. in economics, Dr. Keen is well-known for his critical analysis and advocacy for more realistic economic approaches. His work emphasizes the importance of accounting for financial instability and incorporates elements of complex systems theory. Engineers,
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Engineers, Finance, and IT Pros: Learn 50+ years of Real Economics in only 7 Weeks. Weekly with me. Learn more: apply.stevekeenfree.com OR Join ~10,000 others in downloading my free 'Funny Money' Bundle (2 books, worth ): new.stevekeenfree.com -- Who is Dr. Steve Keen? Dr. Steve Keen is an influential economist who has dedicated over 50 years to challenging mainstream economic theories. Since his days as a university student, he has been engaged in a David vs. Goliath battle against conventional economic models. Holding a Ph.D. in economics, Dr. Keen is well-known for his critical analysis and advocacy for more realistic economic approaches. His work emphasizes the importance of accounting for financial instability and incorporates elements of complex systems theory. Engineers,
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Steve Keen considers the following as important:
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Engineers, Finance, and IT Pros: Learn 50+ years of Real Economics in only 7 Weeks. Weekly with me. Learn more: apply.stevekeenfree.com OR Join ~10,000 others in downloading my free 'Funny Money' Bundle (2 books, worth $60): new.stevekeenfree.com -- Who is Dr. Steve Keen? Dr. Steve Keen is an influential economist who has dedicated over 50 years to challenging mainstream economic theories. Since his days as a university student, he has been engaged in a David vs. Goliath battle against conventional economic models. Holding a Ph.D. in economics, Dr. Keen is well-known for his critical analysis and advocacy for more realistic economic approaches. His work emphasizes the importance of accounting for financial instability and incorporates elements of complex systems theory. Engineers, finance professionals, and IT experts will appreciate his methodical breakdown of economic phenomena and his development of the Minsky software, which models financial crises. Dr. Keen's contributions are crucial for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of how economic systems can impact technological and financial environments. His teachings offer valuable insights into the economic forces shaping our world. By following his analysis, professionals can gain a better grasp of economic dynamics that influence their fields. |
Despite putting some effort in, over several years, I still don't know what Keen is on about. All I get is, something is wrong with mainstream economics, but what it is and how he's fixed it, and why he does this climate change side-job, remains out of reach of my tiny mind. Is he simply an MMTer? Maybe that's what he's avoidng saying….?
No, not an MMT guy… you can find his critique of that simplistic notion.
I believe the basis for his approach may start in microeconomic theory as negative externalities. Combine that with Nordhous' awful climate impact assumptions (and I assure you as a scientist that they're ridiculous), and you get a whole bunch of people with no idea of the risk they face, physically and financially.
@@julieannmyers8714 That simplistic notion is how the monetary system currently functions. Keen certainly seems MMT adjacent
@@julieannmyers8714 Not true at all I'm afraid. Steve Keen is a proponent of MMT, like Michael Hudson. Keen has his critiques and I can understand them from his world view, which I do not share. He has an entire show using system dynamics showing exactly how MMT works.
@WarrenPeaceOG my point was not that Keen is "anti" MMT, but his analysis is not as it is typically described.
LOL Using tech to improve living conditions and cheaper than polluting fuel engines is civilisation growth. Proven pollution reduces life span.😢😢😢😢
Wow, this level of stupidity is surprising even to me. I thought that these misconceptions were found only in politicians (about 1/2 of them in the US), in their media outlets and propagandists, and in anyone that follows these notions.
I am also surprised that these economists are paying no attention to the major year over year increases in home owners, property, agricultural and business insurance premiums/costs driven by the increase in devastating climate events, major hurricanes, wildfires, rain events, and bomb cyclones. The actuaries at insurance companies are busy tabulating the expected costs so as to price them in. Further, in the US, FEMA will need a massive increase in funding due to these events. Also, the US official assessments of flood prone areas to determine the recommendations/requirements for flood insurance (also zoning for housing and businesses) are based on old completely outdated models, as shown by recent flooding in Western North Carolina and in Vermont from Hurricanes.
@@LouisNoodlemanthat is because the spending to fix all the damage from this and the increasing costs of insurance and by the government is great for economic growth to these economists.
The things people are doing around the world to mitigate the effects of climate change and adopt more resilient farming practices that don’t require as much machinery or chemical fertilizers are terrible for economic growth.
Low tech water harvesting systems that soak water into the ground and replenish water tables. Are terrible compared to expensive infrastructure that funnels rain water into sewage systems then requires water be pumped many miles or shipped in trucks
@@LouisNoodleman They do I think, but don't care. I doubt my econ lecturer would have changed their lecture notes to correct the mistakes there if I pointed out to them that Swiss Re's models were over 10x in damage than what Nordhaus had.
@@LouisNoodleman It's not a good look when government becomes slaves to corporations rather than their people. I think Trump is in for a rough time dealing with the ever increasing scale of what's here and ahead.
Stick to economics🥱
He is, and he is dead right.
Obviously you do not study economics. All inputs to the system are economic factors, not just abstract conversations about money supply etc. How did the political decisions of OPEC affect economies? Apart from 'too early to tell' of course.
He is. Economic I/O is directly tied to energy I/O and that means fossil fuels and all the externalities that result from them.
@@denisdaly1708 The climate deniers come out in full force in every video. Happens to scientists as well, on all their channels. Very strange..not sure how many are bots.
I had to take energy economics for my undergrad environmental science degree back in the 80s and already greenhouse gas impacts were well understood and recognized. What college did you go to?
We're already into the extinction event at 1.5C. There won't be much still standing or alive when the world is at 7C, not with the speed that this is now happening. For reference, Dr. Jim White with the U of CO has a good talk about abrupt climate change that viewers may want to watch. He was the lead author of the gvt publication on the subject about 10 years ago.
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It was smart giving all that aid to the third world eh? Now hundreds of millions die instead of just a few million.
Great presentation. Im a psychologist interested in epistemology. I have critiqued Richard Toll on X. Was thinking of emailing uni of Sussex. I have spent the last 3 reads doing climate science.
I have to agree that Tol seriously needs psychological assessment–and not for his benefit, but for the rest of humanity's.
Models and monologues. I need a 3 hour respectable debate with another scientist or similar level.
A debate isn't needed but classroom lessons in the physics of greenhouse gases is needed for many economists.
Have you heard of One Small Town organisation?
Wonder if these economists have their money where their mouth is and invest in beach side realestate?
Prof Keen we actually know quite a bit about previous climate, just not as precise as during the historical period when measurements were recorded for history. But we know from pollen and sea level changes what kind of climate we had since last glaciation and even before that in the tropics.
The knowledge of deep history climate is part of how we know how f*ed we are
What is missing in the thinking is the interdepencies between separate economic sectors.
Take Nordhaus' graph in the presentation.
Farms – 2.8% of GDP. Severely affected.
How severely?
50%?
Meaning a 50% reduction in food supply?
Meaning a 50% reduction in population?
Meaning every sector of the economy suffers at least a50% reduction in it'share of GDP.
Global mass famine. For a century or more.
Other sectors also have interdependencies.
Transport needs energy, mining, construction. Transport is how food is moved. Transport is how people get to work.
And so on…
Unphysical, mad, thinking from economists.
Keen (and Jean-Marc Jancovici, for that matter) used a striking analogy:
Your brain is only 2% of your body mass, but losing your brain means losing 100% of your life. The energy sector is 7-10% of GDP, but losing it means losing 100% of GDP.
1. The Premise: Minimizing the Impact of Climate Change
Keen's Point: Economists often downplay the catastrophic potential of climate change, suggesting that even extreme warming (e.g., 7°C) will have minimal impacts on GDP.
Methodological Flaw: These projections rely on overly simplistic models that compare hypothetical future GDP with and without climate change. They treat climate change as a marginal variable rather than a structural disruptor.
Why It’s Dangerous: By minimizing the impact, policymakers are misled into deprioritizing climate action, undermining the urgency needed to address existential threats.
Keen’s Intention: To expose the irresponsibility of economic models that trivialize climate change and call for more scientifically sound frameworks.
2. Equating Spatial and Temporal Climate Variation
Keen's Point: Economists mistakenly assume that variations in climate across space (e.g., comparing deserts to rainforests) can predict changes over time (e.g., rising global temperatures).
Methodological Flaw: This assumption ignores the dynamic, nonlinear, and potentially catastrophic changes triggered by increasing global temperatures. Climate systems are not static; they respond in fundamentally different ways to incremental stressors.
Why It’s Dangerous: Such models fail to account for tipping points, feedback loops, and systemic breakdowns, leading to gross underestimation of climate risks.
Keen’s Intention: To dismantle the intellectual laziness of using spatial variation as a proxy for temporal change, underscoring its scientific invalidity.
3. The "Social Cost of Carbon" and Damage Functions
Keen's Point: Economists' calculations of climate impacts rely on dubious "damage functions" that claim large parts of the economy (e.g., finance, services, manufacturing) are immune to climate change because they are not directly exposed to weather.
Methodological Flaw: These assumptions are naive, ignoring interdependencies between sectors, cascading failures, and systemic risks. For example, a collapse in agriculture would ripple through finance, trade, and government systems.
Why It’s Dangerous: This reinforces complacency, as the true systemic impacts of climate change are hidden behind flawed metrics and models.
Keen’s Intention: To emphasize the interconnectedness of the economy and climate systems, debunking the false sense of security promoted by neoclassical frameworks.
4. Over-Reliance on Expert Elicitation
Keen's Point: Economists often base climate models on surveys of other economists, not climate scientists, perpetuating ignorance and groupthink.
Methodological Flaw: By consulting experts unqualified in climate science, these models embed misunderstandings and biases about climate dynamics. Economists assume they can quantify uncertainties in climate systems using inappropriate tools.
Why It’s Dangerous: Policies shaped by these models are inherently flawed, as they fail to incorporate the scientific reality of climate thresholds and risks.
Keen’s Intention: To highlight the need for interdisciplinary review, ensuring that climate models are informed by actual climate science.
5. Misinterpretation of Non-Equilibrium Processes
Keen's Point: Neoclassical models assume equilibrium and linearity in systems that are inherently non-equilibrium and nonlinear, such as economic growth and climate change.
Methodological Flaw: These models ignore the possibility of abrupt, catastrophic shifts (e.g., the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and assume that markets will naturally adjust.
Why It’s Dangerous: This ideological bias toward market solutions fosters complacency, delaying the structural changes necessary to mitigate climate impacts.
Keen’s Intention: To expose the fundamental incompatibility of neoclassical equilibrium models with the dynamic reality of climate systems.
6. Ignoring Scientific Peer Review
Keen's Point: Climate-related economic models are rarely peer-reviewed by climate scientists, leading to the publication of fundamentally flawed work.
Methodological Flaw: Without interdisciplinary scrutiny, these models perpetuate errors that would be easily flagged by climate scientists.
Why It’s Dangerous: The lack of scientific validation means these models can misguide policy decisions, leading to inadequate or counterproductive climate strategies.
Keen’s Intention: To advocate for rigorous cross-disciplinary review processes, ensuring that climate economics is grounded in scientific reality.
7. Catastrophic Implications of Ignoring Tipping Points
Keen's Point: Economists fail to consider the potential for climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the AMOC, which could have devastating consequences (e.g., freezing winters, agricultural collapse).
Methodological Flaw: Neoclassical models treat climate impacts as gradual and manageable, ignoring nonlinear dynamics that could lead to cascading system failures.
Why It’s Dangerous: By failing to account for tipping points, these models create a false narrative that we have time to adapt, delaying urgent action.
Keen’s Intention: To convey the urgency of addressing climate risks and to expose the fatal consequences of ignoring them.
8. Ideological Bias Toward Market Solutions
Keen's Point: Neoclassical economists assume that market mechanisms (e.g., carbon pricing) can solve climate change without acknowledging the systemic disruptions it poses.
Methodological Flaw: This ideological commitment blinds economists to the scale of intervention needed, such as systemic decarbonization and large-scale public investment.
Why It’s Dangerous: Overreliance on market solutions limits the scope and ambition of climate policy, making it impossible to achieve necessary emissions reductions.
Keen’s Intention: To challenge the ideological stranglehold of market fundamentalism in economic policymaking, advocating for systemic approaches.
Concluding Thoughts: Why This Matters
Keen’s critique is not just an academic exercise; it is a call to action. By exposing the flaws in neoclassical climate economics, he highlights the urgent need to reframe climate policy around science rather than flawed economic models. The stakes are existential: failure to address climate risks seriously could result in catastrophic outcomes for humanity.
Keen’s ultimate goal is to ensure that climate economics is informed by the best available science, removing unqualified economists from positions of influence in policy formation. This is essential for crafting effective, science-based strategies to mitigate climate change and safeguard the future of human civilization.
We will begin putting 1.5% sulfurized hydrocarbons into the jet fuel well before 7C.
very helpful, thank you
Traditional Economics is bs. It has no links to reality at all. But to be frank global warming will actually increase GDP not reduce GDP because warming will create more destruction, and that destruction will lead to increase consumption Wich will increase GDP. This is true in short term not long term.
Dude, gove up this climate BS. Lordy man.
He is talking about Economics. Fossil fuels are the primary energy inputs for the modern world and map directly to the economy. Our economic system is a reflection of our energy system – including externalities. Economists that ignore this aren't economists – they're misleading ideologues.
Feel free to leave and go watch something that doesn't offend you.
@@williamturner-v1s I'm not offended. He is wrong on man made global warming. I certainly grasp the relationship between energy and economy. Germany's economic suicide via energy policy is a testament.
@@ftboomer1you’ve found critical mistakes in thousands of scientific papers, eh?😂
@@ftboomer1 The bulk of the reputable scientific community is on one side and on the other are people like Donald Trump, Alex Jones and a cult of theocratic republican nuts. To each their own.
You were given a death sentence at birth.
(Everything below 5000m is baked, but…) "There's still snow on those peaks! Huge variability!"
Like Venus; 900°F on surface, but there's a Goldilocks zone for us like 50km up… If we could breathe.
Mainstream economists will never criticise the current system, even as the walls around them catch fire. Professor Keen is relentless in calling them out. If we do not take heed of his warnings, humanity will be on its way out before the end of the century. Please tell your children and grandchildren about this.
It's simultaneously unbelievable and highly predictable. What a strange bunch of people your peers are, Steve!