by Summary:
System Dynamics was first developed in the 1950s by Jay W. Forrester at MIT. Initially, it was used to study industrial processes. Forrester's big idea was to use feedback loops and time delays to understand how different parts of a system interact with one another. He published the groundbreaking book Industrial Dynamics in 1961, which laid the foundation for this field. In the 1970s, System Dynamics gained wider attention with the release of the famous book The Limits to Growth, created by the Club of Rome. This work modeled the interaction between population growth, resource depletion, and environmental constraints, highlighting the limits of exponential growth.
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System Dynamics was first developed in the 1950s by Jay W. Forrester at MIT. Initially, it was used to study industrial processes. Forrester's big idea was to use feedback loops and time delays to understand how different parts of a system interact with one another. He published the groundbreaking book Industrial Dynamics in 1961, which laid the foundation for this field. In the 1970s, System Dynamics gained wider attention with the release of the famous book The Limits to Growth, created by the Club of Rome. This work modeled the interaction between population growth, resource depletion, and environmental constraints, highlighting the limits of exponential growth.
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| System Dynamics was first developed in the 1950s by Jay W. Forrester at MIT. Initially, it was used to study industrial processes. Forrester's big idea was to use feedback loops and time delays to understand how different parts of a system interact with one another. He published the groundbreaking book Industrial Dynamics in 1961, which laid the foundation for this field. In the 1970s, System Dynamics gained wider attention with the release of the famous book The Limits to Growth, created by the Club of Rome. This work modeled the interaction between population growth, resource depletion, and environmental constraints, highlighting the limits of exponential growth. |
Fyi. Using your cameras uses 20x the energy.
Fyi the same argument could be used to get people to do video conferences instead of meeting in person. Or replacing audio only with no communication. There's always a do -it-with-less argument. But without system change your austerity is just someone else's surplus. That's why I don't agree with the consumer led propaganda to use less; it just gives someone else a surplus. It's energy supply transformation or bust imo
The “ economics profession “ what? The economics delusion is more to the point!
Technology got us to this place. We were better off in the longer run when we were all indigenous.
Nothing is stopping you. Go off in the woods please
The only "technology" that has any hope of preventing the pending catastrophic overshoot is a new resource distribution model and economic paradigm that's is not based on infinite growth.
Edit:
Economists would like to believe economics is a science, if so the application of that science will produce technology.
Unlike actual scientists though, classical economists have developed a field that isn't as interested in pursuing knowledge or truth so much as propping up their flawed economic "standard model". They are devotees to a geocentric model in a post Copernican world. I suppose that makes anyone who disagrees with their dogma a heretic, and correct.
Every time someone has predicted that we would run out of resources, observations did not hold with their prediction – we continue to grow. When using science and a theory is not borne out by observations, we discard the theory. What you are pushing is not science. You may be surprised to learn that economists actually do test their models against observation and it holds time and time again
A couple of years ago I translated the DYNAMO model in "Population Control Mechanisms in a Primitive Agricultural Society" by Steven B. Shantzis and William W. Behrens III into Minsky. I made some rational small modifications of my own, that appeared to be needed, to stabilize/dampen the pig/human population cycle in phase space. In dampen, I don't mean that the two reach a point but a continuing cycle that continues indefinitely like a predator/prey population. I found that the model, as published, did not predict a stable pig/human population over time (maybe that was just my translation/interpretation into Minsky). The original model needed to be fed really tight initial conditions, that in the end led to growing cycles of pigs/humans in phase space. With my rational modification, the cycles stabilized over a range of initial conditions.
My modification, in short; I added some nonlinearity in proportion to population size to the ability of the tribes to kill each other in tribal warfare, this makes sense in that your spear is more likely to hit a target if there are more opposing warriors in the field than less. This is also makes sense from the predator/prey model perspective in that wolves are more likely to catch deer if there more of each roaming around. I think this nuance was not captured in the original model, but then again that could just be my translation of DYNAMO into Minsky.
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The problem is the socialist pension debts are growing faster than any achievable growth in the economy.
But since you don't put pension debts into your system , your system is bogus.
Thinking about limits to growth can be depressing. I was 8 years old when the oil crisis hit in 1973, living in an old drafty badly-insulated house in Canada, heated by oil, so all my life I've been aware that the high material standard of living we enjoy now in Western countries will not last, because we are destroying our natural resource base.
There are no simple solutions, and as I get older, I become more pessimistic. I think permaculture and regenerative agriculture may be part of the solution. Eventually like-minded people will have to come together, before it's too late, and found sustainable communities based on the principle of permaculture.
I am an engineer, living in the suburbs of a big city, living a life that is not at all sustainable. The only small thin I do in acknowledgement of reality is I have a small back yard vegetable garden where I grow potatoes and beans. I am self-sufficient in potatoes. I never use chemical fertilizers or pesticides. My little play-garden has given me tremendous respect for farmers, because it's a lot more difficult to grow food successfully than people expect. The biggest problem is pests eating your food.
First Principle, know what, how and why there's such a notion of Self you can see in the mirror, before you _can ask "what can we do", ..ie knowing what e-Pi-i sync-duration resonance represents symbolically is relevant to knowing what money is, how e-Pi-i is THE entangled orthogonal-normal 1-0-infinity Limit of motion-potential layering positioning in the resonant constant, flash-fractal symbolic recognition of Eternity-now QM-TIME In-form-ation substantiation pure-math relative-timing Interval, the Totality of Completeness Actuality self-defines the Math-Phys-Chem and Geometrical arrangements of holography-quantization atomic-node nucleation, ..is why a systems approach to economic loops of fractal coherence-cohesion sync-duration sub routines in the holistic ecology of planet Earth is recommended.., full vertically integrated re-education reiteration reset according to temporal thermodynamical superposition energy/virtual vector-values of work, focus of reciprocation-recirculation differentiates derived from sum-of-all-histories Singularity-point Lensing.
Has to be done anyway.
You always need a Physics Teacher to start you off understanding heating/cooling curves of relative-timing frequency-amplitudes aligned in a coherence-cohesion sync-duration resonance shell-horizons containment system of chemical bonding holography, eg candle wax calorimetry time-timing sync-duration plot of rates of heating and cooling related to e-Pi-i-numberness exponentiation-ness superposition described in oversimplification as temperature. It is no wonder that Economics is difficult when terminology is so nebulous as to avoid the actual systems of superimposed frequency-amplitudes in holographic heterodyne transmission and interference integration. Quant Mastery has a way to go.., because this tiny bit of learning by doing to develop some "thing" Intuition next requires a Mathematician who has been brought up in the time-timing navigators assembly of concepts (having a "Captain Cook" look) in/of QM-TIME Completeness Actuality=> holography-quantization superposition by default.
"S" curve sum-of-all-histories is "heating up" in frequency output, Wrights curve is cooling down as the system finds the optimal flow, loosely speaking.
In support of good intentions, science is not a fixed result, never possible other than as an instantaneous trancendental projection-drawing i-reflection containment image in a Perfect Gas Thermodynamics, -> existing log-antilog system of metastable Actuality.
I would like to point to Queensland in Australia that has just brought in 50 cent public transport! If you don’t think massive infrastructure changes can happen quickly. They are still making a profit at that price and the uptake has been huge as people try to save money.
Heating Cooling system, EMF +/-, time-timing cycles of relative-timing ratio-rates in cycling Totality uni-verse potential holography-quantization interference positioning-location patterning is Math-Phys-Chem and Geometry phenomena here-now-forever. Economics is close to nothing in No-thing Relativity if the principal function is no demonstrated for pulse-evolution differentiates integrated metastability here-now-forever.
The untapped resource is a planet full of students wishing to reassemble the concepts they have positioned in memory, and compose a methodology that can be applied to showing what, how and why inside-outside holographic presence is Actuality and how to rebuild a genuinely capable economic reality. Paying off the student debt is analogous to what Michael Hudson's Research revealed about citizens participating in ancient times without the here-you-go simplification and disinformation terminology of financial dealings. What is Value?
In Australia, as in the rest of the predator-prey world, if you have any advantage, you have aquired a "friend" who will help take it from you.
Occasionally they wait until you die of natural causes, but usually not.
New Guinea Highlanders are an excellent example.
The most effective self defense tactic is Meditation, (an admission of complete ignorance), ..the participation of self in Self avails one of the Universal Bio-logical holographic unity-connection memory.
"Good things come to those who sit and wait ", if they understand their personal responsibility in accurate social positioning.
This is Eternity-now reiteration Actuality.
My contribution is to agree with you all.
Serves you right.
"Right" is the extreme form of wrong under present conditions.
Establishment economists are conservative apologists, rationalizers, and careerist enablers of the first principles of state imperatives, primary of which is gaining insatiable infinite power. Violence (military hierarchy), money (weaponized economics), and knowledge (technology), are the elements of this power. Self-interested human tribalism, i.e. the self-interested state, remains compelled to compete in the interstate system/evolutionary arms race. Consequently, the self-interested state remains compelled by gaining increasing power, which means prioritizing militarism, wealth, and the technology that serves this militarism, wealth, and management of society, including the mythology of endless emergent timely techno-fixes. Antithetical to this legacy status quo is the political economy alternative of egalitarianism, where the ruling class shares wealth and power with the working class. Of course, the entire status quo is organized against this egalitarianism, where the vanguards of power – military, plutocracy, oligarchy, and elites – coerce the working class to provide a collective contribution to state power through their exploitation and sacrifice. Top-down economics themselves cannot fix the human condition; the solution requires changing the bottom-up dynamics of tribal instincts, state organization, and state relationships.
In the conversation, comments on standard of living and sustainability appear in the context of balancing resources, environmental impact, and the quality of life.
Here's a summary:
Standard of Living:
• The dialogue distinguishes between standard of living and quality of life. The standard of living is associated with material consumption, gadgets, and comforts, whereas the quality of life focuses more on human connections, community, and non-material aspects of well-being.
• The conversation critiques the modern consumerist lifestyle, suggesting that we should shift from the current obsession with material goods towards more sustainable and community-oriented living.
Sustainability:
• A key concern is exponential growth in population and resource consumption within a finite world, creating an unsustainable demand for resources.
• Technological progress is debated as a potential solution to sustainability challenges. Some argue that technology can increase efficiency, but there’s skepticism about whether it can indefinitely support continuous growth without depleting resources.
• The concept of overshoot and collapse is discussed, where systems grow beyond their carrying capacity and then face sudden declines. Examples include predator-prey models and resource consumption patterns in society.
• There's mention of the Limits to Growth model, which suggests that without significant value changes—such as reducing population growth and resource consumption—society might face collapse.
The conversation overall reflects a deep concern about the tension between maintaining a high standard of living and ensuring long-term sustainability through responsible resource use and reducing environmental impacts.
Fantastic Show! – right up my ally of philosophical thinking. We are part of the .001% on the planet
I like the informal setting. You should call it "From Steve's Locker room".
I graduated from a degree in philosophy at a prestigious university. I left the field because people fundamentally don't care about ethics anymore. Almost all issues in economics are philosophical issues of ethics, and not in a trivial sense. The ancient Greek philosophers Aristotle, Socrates, Plato and many more faced the same basic problems in politics, economics, democracy and free will thousands of years ago. Human nature is largely the same now as it was back then, and arguably worse.
We are all playing an iterative Prisoner's Dilemma but instead of one opponent, everyone is playing against everyone else. Thus the ideal outcome requires the cooperation of billions of people when there is an incentive to do the exact opposite – f*ck each other over for personal short-term gain. Unfortunately the people who play the game properly die off first, or at least never prosper for long enough to make a difference in the masses.
Unless you can solve the philosophical problem of human nature (greed, selfishness, violence and good old-fashioned stupidity) you will never solve economic problems. We aren't going to make it as a species.
Well said.