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Ravel is a whole new way to analyse data. No coding needed, no obscure cell reference formulas, and no need for pivot tables. Here I show how Ravel can effortlessly analyze the relationship between household debt acceleration and house price changes, in just ten minutes! Ravel will streamline and dramatically accelerate your data analysis. It works with any type of data, from marketing sales data to scientific. Get Ravel from https://www.patreon.com/ravelation for a budget-friendly per month. Enhance your data analysis capabilities today! For people who want to see the logic behind my assertion that the acceleration of debt drives change in asset prices (shares as well as houses), please check this link: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/your-margin-and-your-life
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Ravel is a whole new way to analyse data. No coding needed, no obscure cell reference formulas, and no need for pivot tables. Here I show how Ravel can effortlessly analyze the relationship between household debt acceleration and house price changes, in just ten minutes! Ravel will streamline and dramatically accelerate your data analysis. It works with any type of data, from marketing sales data to scientific. Get Ravel from https://www.patreon.com/ravelation for a budget-friendly per month. Enhance your data analysis capabilities today! For people who want to see the logic behind my assertion that the acceleration of debt drives change in asset prices (shares as well as houses), please check this link: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/your-margin-and-your-life
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| Ravel is a whole new way to analyse data. No coding needed, no obscure cell reference formulas, and no need for pivot tables. Here I show how Ravel can effortlessly analyze the relationship between household debt acceleration and house price changes, in just ten minutes! Ravel will streamline and dramatically accelerate your data analysis. It works with any type of data, from marketing sales data to scientific. Get Ravel from https://www.patreon.com/ravelation for a budget-friendly $7 per month. Enhance your data analysis capabilities today! For people who want to see the logic behind my assertion that the acceleration of debt drives change in asset prices (shares as well as houses), please check this link: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/your-margin-and-your-life |
So awesome!
Thanks! Check it out at https://www.patreon.com/Ravelation. There's a seven-day trial as well, so you can try it for 7 days before you decide whether it's worth $7 a month to you. The install files last 90 days from the previous release, so at the moment you'll get about 75 days to check it out, once you sign up–even on the free trial level (ie, even if you decide not to become a customer, you'll be able to use Ravel for about 75 days anyway).
You may have discussed it in previous videos, but not everyone will have seen them all, so I think it's important to always state how you are deriving cause and effect relationships from correlations.
That was a bit technical to explain in this video as well as showing how to use Ravel, but the logic is explained (and applied to share prices) here: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/your-margin-and-your-life
I've added that link to the description now. Thanks for the nudge.
@@ProfSteveKeen Having read the linked chapter, I hope you will forgive my oversight if I missed where the criteria for the progression from correlation to cause and effect is noted. Is it presumed that a strong correlation is indicative of cause and effect, and if so, how does one distinguish which is which?
@@crawkn It's a causal argument, and in a typical system dynamics outcome it's both ways: rising house prices encourage more debt, more debt drives up house prices. Standard economic causality tests are very weak–they presume linearity, and rely on timing differences. But that said, Granger causality tests found the debt–>price relationship was 15 times stronger than the price–>debt relationship.
@@ProfSteveKeen Thank you, the Granger test certainly establishes strong evidence of causality. It is unfortunately a common problem that causal relationships are inferred from correlations in combination with detailed system knowledge and plausible theories of operation, but when you are struggling against prevailing theoretical winds, it's good to provide more unassailable statistical analysis. I understand your videos are largely tailored to an unsophisticated audience, but a passing reference to, and concise statement of, the method of establishing a causal relationship might induce a skeptic to investigate further.
You are certainly correct about the credit-to-inflation relationship being a feedback loop, but something has to trigger the looping, to move away from a quasi-stable state.
Now we need economists to use it, civil servants etc. Good work mate
I'm hoping that Joe and Jane Public will try it first: that's why we've priced it so reasonably at just $7 a month. Give it a try at https://www.patreon.com/Ravelation: use the 7-day-free signup if you want.
Would be interesting to see interest rates as well here.
Ravel looks good, feel like a powerful tool one you know how to use it.
That would be easy to factor in.
It's been designed to be easy to use, though like any analytic tool, the more you know about data analysis, the easier it is to use. Check it out at https://www.patreon.com/Ravelation
Observing that planets go around the sun is not the same as a theory of why. You've identified a relationship, not explained the phenomena; cherry picking a time span doesn't explain why the dynamic happened. Australia's "solution" was to keep their foot on the bubble accelerator. Finance doesn't as much make money off of lending but by profiting from products fashioned *from loans*. That's where the insane incentives are coming from built on a system engineered to cause housing inflation.
Why are you trying to be a teacher towards a Professor?
@@webfreakz Academia is filled with economists with the title of professor. I consider the argument for causation substandard.
@@GhostOnTheHalfShell i'm sorry but who are you?
@@webfreakz inquisitive by nature. aren't you?
Hats off to the programming behind this! 👍
Yes. Russell Standish is outstanding. It’s been a wonderful partnership with him to design Ravel, and now I want to see it bear fruit with sales. Hop on board at https://www.patreon.com/ravelation
Impressive!
Literally the DOJ just charged a company for price fixing in the housing market. The entire system is run by criminals. Things will only get worse.
Chicken and egg scenario? Which came first debt or house prices. Obviously prices go up debt go up because households don’t buy homes cash.
Is it those that borrow on equity of their home then buy investment property with that equity as deposit. Then the household’s debt has doubled but the household is not paying the mortgage on investment property the renters do.
A bubble in house prices can also be observed evaluating house rents. When one is able to rent at much lower costs compared to owning a home with mortgage debt one can conclude house prices are in bubble spheres.
The Austrian economists left the chat to introspect