by Summary:
Ty and Dan discuss everything from politics to philosophy. In this easy breezy episode, we were surprised (slightly) by the audience's input to move the show into a hybrid recording series. We have some planning and more discussions to do. One thing is for sure, this show will improve with each episode.
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Ty and Dan discuss everything from politics to philosophy. In this easy breezy episode, we were surprised (slightly) by the audience's input to move the show into a hybrid recording series. We have some planning and more discussions to do. One thing is for sure, this show will improve with each episode.
Topics:
Steve Keen considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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| Ty and Dan discuss everything from politics to philosophy. In this easy breezy episode, we were surprised (slightly) by the audience's input to move the show into a hybrid recording series. We have some planning and more discussions to do. One thing is for sure, this show will improve with each episode. |
Great as always. I know facebook weighs angry 5x more than postitivity so have some angry fellas 🙄😡😡🤬
Thanks. I liked the way we did the show today. I liked everyone's comments being shown minus that one using the enter key too much. I think once I get Steve a good connection. I want to use the concept of today's show, just random conversations.
@Ty Keynes Me too, I love how you guys read the chat and engage with it. I didn't realise it was you in the chat though! Is Ty Keynes your actual name? And what is the other hosts name? I keep forgetting to ask or check. I'm Rollo btw, dont expect you to remember or it or anything, dont worry aha
@Botched Mandala Ty Keynes is my real name. It's nice to meet you Rollo. The other host is Dan Sanderson. I see you in the chats every weekend, I like all your comments very well balanced.
Live chat was being hijacked by an individual spamming their investment strategies/plugging their YT channel in 3 word posts. Please limit the speed at which people can post.
@Ty Keynes sorry!
I don't need to advertise.
I just wanted to discuss the arguments with the related graphics.
If you took a look at the historical graphs, you could see that I was not interested in spamming, but only in contributing to education.
many economists take out of the equation the relationship between unemployment and credit and the cycle of appreciation and depreciation of real estate assets, respectively the cycle of land that is appreciated speculatively and automatically leads to reduced productivity and more expensive food and living. When everyone notices that everything is becoming very expensive, land and house speculators start selling from top to bottom at the same time as the banks start executing on automatic fire; this leads to the propagation of deflation and decollateralization derived from the financial system.
The phenomenon overlaps very well when the generation with strong incomes and access to expensive credit no longer comes from behind; so is the young generation who are unemployed and looking for work. Exactly at that moment the credit deflates and impacts the old jobs which will force the companies to fire old and expensive employees and hire and train young people for much lower salaries.
The average of each generation entering productivity and access to credit, respectively inflation per cycle of financial assets is 25-40 years, which always results in an average of 13-14-15 years of credit boom with the correction from the middle of the cycle and with the correction from the end of the cycle.
Every time you get close to the end of your credit, you will see in the respective squares a gathering of unemployed youth who are currently living on their parents' shoulders.
This youth still manages to stay in rents and schools/faculties until the credit is closed and until the power of the parents' income is exhausted; or, respectively, to lose their jobs due to the spread of inflation given by the demand for consumption from young people and the demand for investment credit given by the productive generation still in the labor field.
The credit shock will historically take a share of the old generation out of work and put a share of the new generation into work. For this reason, assets and credit periodically deflate or stagnate once every 18-19 years from peak to peak, or once every 14-15 years from trough to peak and with the mid-point correction of the credit that is repeated every year 7-8-9 because the governments do not anticipate entering the market for the consumption of the young generation, which unbalances the balance of rents/relatively fixed costs in the market. This demand surplus causes cyclical bursts in inflation and simultaneously leads to the final opening of the credit boom in order to control inflation and to finally speculate through investments for the productive generation that observes the explosion of consumption. This explosion of consumption will end once a maximum plateau of price increases is reached in the market, given by the reaching/exaggeration of the credit flow and the exaggeration of consumption by young people without work. This maximum will generate a crisis in the future and will inevitably lead to the collapse of consumption and the collapse of investments that speculated on the respective branch of consumption.
The business cycle has historically been the cycle of generations glued to the real estate and credit cycle.
@Alpinism Utilitar There were no issues with what you were saying from my perspective. It was only that you were commenting with a lot of 1 to 3 word sentences in rapid succession. It was making it very hard for others to respond to both you and us on the show.
@Ty Keynes I don't write English fluently; it takes me a while to write completely. I will try harder.
I knew about the correction shock of 2020!
I notified people! Because the half credit cycle generates the speed of money from hand to hand in the market!
And for people or businesses that have been in the market since the credit minimum, they know when the economy heats up. Plus, believe me, I followed the margin debt and the endless queues for housing / mortgage loans in my city during 2018-2019, where real estate prices simultaneously accelerated.
I have investments in real estate and I have observed the delay in the rent increase; called in the economy and the increase of "total costs" while real estate and loans were given automatic fire.
We anticipated that they will not remain cheap in the long term and as we suspected after the deflationary shock of 2020, the rents and costs have exploded in nominal terms.
The same cycle was repeated between 1999 and 2001 with the attempted bench press; where in my market rents were slow to increase in terms of profitability and loans were given on automatic fire. After the shock of panic in 2000-2001, all costs went uphill rapidly until the crisis of the cost of living, respectively the rent bubble and the speculative bubble of 2008; repeated phenomenon in Romania and in the cost of living bubble of 1989 with the fall of the regime. The problem is that after each income and currency deflation, 3-4 years are much harder for the regions. Where many with a mountain of debt can find themselves with negative leverage if they do not have gold in their portfolio; because every country reprices gold; that is, the income in gold can deflate in the short term.
plus Corelate the cycle of NLP in credit market and unemployment.
Really enjoyed the proposal the we live more conservatively but some of the discussion feels very western and middle class. I'd love to know more about implications for the 3rd world and those below the poverty line.
Then I will make it a point from now on to address the implications for 3rd world and people below the poverty line. I think that is very important. Thank you. Also thank you for watching!
I think debt is a huge problem for third-world countries and has prevented many governments from spending enough on crucial programs, building infrastructure, or growing businesses. The US has huge debt, but it's not a problem at all according to Modern Monetary Theory, which is what Ty, Dan, and Steve are teaching us. The US adds to the national debt through deficit spending, and, contrary to what some politicians and neoclassical economists say, it never has to repay the debt–it just has to pay interest on the bonds it sells. So, what makes debt terrible in the third world and good in the developed world? I don't know if all third-world countries have central banks, but I suspect that many do not. Countries have to have private banks in order to operate a central bank, and I imagine that many poor countries don't have banks. Even if a country has banks, it might not have a central bank. Without a banking sector and central bank, a country can't have a deficit that it finances through bond sales to banks. That makes debt a big problem that keeps governments in the third world from building infrastructure, promoting economic growth, and providing programs such as medical care and food security. Some third-world countries that have a banking sector but no central bank really should create one. It can lift the country out of poverty. I think it would be great to explain Modern Monetary Theory to third-world governments because it could help many of them escape the burden of debt. Politically, I am very far on the left, but I am also a pragmatist who believes that economic growth in third-world countries is the fastest way to lift people out of great poverty. The thing that worries me is that many capitalists set up factories in third-world countries so that they can avoid environmental regulations (and pay low wages.) Our biosphere can't handle the damage from those factories, and the global warming crisis that ensues will cost the lives of hundreds of millions of poor people. It will cause massive famine and, basically, a tsunami that never abates because the sea level could rise 40 meters. Thus, environmental regulations must be international, but third-world countries that refuse will attract the most capitalists. I don't know the solution.
Thank you for all the work you do! Invaluable! Cheers to less tech issues in the future!
I would like a video about how Minski works and how it can be implemented.
The insistence that inflation comes from wages is hilarious. Economists admit they don’t understand it. Today’s US inflation is 53% profiteering (see Katie Porter testimony in House). Supply chain delays, energy costs, economic distress (say like mounting debt service costs). Inflation can collapse economies (see a weimar Germany) or social unrest can (see supply chain, debt and profiteering). If someone is saying it’s wages they only understand the evening news.