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Thermodynamics 2.0 keynote: Macroeconomics, Minsky, & fraud in Neoclassical climate change economics

Summary:
Thermodynamics 2.0 was the "bisociation of thermodynamics with other academic disciplines such as physics, biology, sociology, economics... It is about merging two cultures, not just bridging the gap." I argue proper scientific methods should take economics over, not merge with what is currently there. I show macroeconomics doesn't need microeconomics, illustrate modeling using the Minsky system dynamics software, & expose the appallingly bad work of Neoclassical climate change economists

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Thermodynamics 2.0 was the "bisociation of thermodynamics with other academic disciplines such as physics, biology, sociology, economics... It is about merging two cultures, not just bridging the gap." I argue proper scientific methods should take economics over, not merge with what is currently there.



I show macroeconomics doesn't need microeconomics, illustrate modeling using the Minsky system dynamics software, & expose the appallingly bad work of Neoclassical climate change economists
Steve Keen
Steve Keen (born 28 March 1953) is an Australian-born, British-based economist and author. He considers himself a post-Keynesian, criticising neoclassical economics as inconsistent, unscientific and empirically unsupported. The major influences on Keen's thinking about economics include John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Hyman Minsky, Piero Sraffa, Augusto Graziani, Joseph Alois Schumpeter, Thorstein Veblen, and François Quesnay.

16 comments

  1. Kresho Krešimir

    Thanks Prof Keen

  2. Yesssss

  3. amazing!!!

  4. Outstanding. I've linked it over to Tamino (climate) and will be forwarding it to quite a few other places. You do this brilliantly.

  5. TheCanMan Can Since 1990

    Mr. Keen what do we do with the Dan Pena's of the world
    The literally gut entire industry's
    You have removed all need for ownership or even collateral
    An other than real estate that's exactly what the banks who receive your deficit dollars fund
    Other than big for accountants an corporate litigation it's not creating jobs
    Everyone is worried about inflation when your literally destroyed domestic an general productive capacity
    This guy's supposedly took 800 bucks am made an option contract to drill public lands he didn't own an sold it for 100m on the footsie uk exchange that was an 1980s I don't even want to know what they're getting into today or how ridiculous it's gotten
    Why would anyone make real infastructure or capitol goods that atleast the Monopolist Barron's of yester year Carnegie Vanderbilt ect delivered
    Another quote from Dan Pena
    First day they privatizing the NHS I would walk in an fire half the staff indiscriminately
    These guys are buying up lung cancer patients a willing sector in any hot Industry with a positive cash flow running it to the ground while they buy up as many more they can find an repacking them into a single corporate to sell back to the bank who gave them the original loan or venture capitol IPO
    This is the economic model of zirc an zero interest
    Can your really continue deflation while printing digits to deflate even more ?
    There allowed to owner finance non recourse loans even sell equity stakes in a theoretical company that may or may not ever exist
    I'm have trouble believing deficit spending is wise any more an I was a true believer of modern monetary theory probably unhealthily so…

    • MMT as a theory was, until recently, criticised by monetarists as being fanciful, and an inflationary threat. Now these same people are implementing it to save the value of their assets. Their level of government spending is far higher than what was previously suggested to counter the GFC.
      MMT exists, it does not matter if you believe it or not, and the people that abused the previous paradigm will abuse the next.
      Subsidising the financial sector is bad. They threaten financial stability by incentivising risk taking. Actually what you dont do if you want to promote stability.

    • TheCanMan Can Since 1990

      @he1ar1 are you sure you're understanding what I'm saying I'm telling you that's what are deficits are being spent on
      That's who's getting the corporate welfare it's not even productive corporation they few and far between even bring a new product to Market
      Most of them choose to just take capital gains on stock exchanges
      See Philip Morowski Biotech Ponzi
      Or consolidate or privatizating existing public or private companies

  6. 16:09 – ( C ) Minsky Open Source Systems Dynamics
    16:44
    20:23 – Create a Godley Double Entry Table
    21:58
    23:35
    23:42 – Simulate
    24:13 – Minsky isn't just for finance. Minsky can also model COMPARTMENTALIZED systems like the S I M
    .
    wikipedia – System information modelling (SIM) is the process of modelling complex connected systems. System information models are digital representations of connected systems, such as electrical instrumentation and control, power, and communication systems. The objects modelled in a SIM have a 1:1 relationship with the objects in the physical system. Components, connections and functions are defined and linked as they would be in the real world.

    The concept of SIM has existed since the mid 1990s. It was first proposed in 1994 by an Australian instrument, electrical and control system engineering company – I&E Systems Pty Ltd. Like many technological innovations the idea for SIM was born out of necessity. Since the mid-nineties, the complexity of power, control and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems has been growing exponentially due to rapid advances in technology; this has rendered the traditional paper-based methodologies and applications used for system design to become obsolete.
    .
    https://gcn.com/articles/2020/06/02/covidcity-supercomputer-model.aspx .
    .
    https://www.covid19sim.org .
    .
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/mathematical-modeling.html .

  7. 00:00 – Presentation Abstract
    00:09 – Alternative to [ neoclassical ] seductive [ B S ]
    00:19 – Toolbox 00:20 – Puzzles
    00:25 – Foundations that conform to our LAWS of THERMODYNAMICS [ 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 ]
    00:36 – [ Open source ] Minsky
    00:45
    01:14 – (A) Macro-foundation for Macro-economics
    02:16
    03:13 – Neoclassicals can't dispute w/o disputing indisputable definitions . . .
    03:18 – Employment = L , Capital = K , Population = N , wages = W , Output [ GDP ] = Y , Private Debt = D
    _______ L : N Ratio = Lambda
    _______ W : Y Ratio = Omega
    _______ D : Y Ratio = d
    _______ Y : L Ratio = a
    _______ K : Y = v
    03:55 – differentiate L/N & W/Y & D/Y
    04:02 – differentiate L/N
    04:14 – differentiate W/Y
    04:19 – differentiate D/Y
    04:25
    04:46
    05:50

    11:15 – ( B ) Deriving Macro from Thermodynamics
    11:50 – All schools of economic thought have modeled ( Y ) as a function of inputs ( L ) & ( K )
    12:00 – Neoclassical economic school model
    12:15 – Post Keynesian economic school model
    12:30 – About 4 years ago . . . the role of energy
    12:51
    13:12 – Insight  
    13:42 – ( L ) & ( K ) are means convert energy into useful work
    13:52 – make energy as an argument ( L ) & ( K ) rather than energy as a 3rd factor
    13:59
    15:36
    16:00
    16:09 – ( C ) Minsky Open Source Systems Dynamics

  8. 28:19 – ( D ) Appallingly Bad Neoclassical Climate Change Economics

  9. Harry Kiralfy Broe

    Brilliant.

  10. Harry Kiralfy Broe

    2nd comment – I figured all this out back in 2003, when I studied climate change as an archaeologist, using simple assumptions and writing forward the data in a very primitive linear model (which I knew was inaccurate and which tended downplayed the consequences).My friends as family just laughed at me, calling me crazy. That was a super depressing experience, on my behalf…

    • ?
      Harry Kiralfy Broe 2 days ago (edited)

      2nd comment – 

      I figured all this out back in 2003,
      when I studied climate change as an archaeologist,
      using simple assumptions
      and
      writing forward the data
      in a very primitive linear model

      (which I knew was inaccurate and which tended
      to downplay
      the consequences).

      My friends & family just laughed at me, calling me crazy.

      That was a super depressing experience
      .
      Maybe they knew the math was over simplified

  11. Crusade against Neo-Classical Economics! DEUS VULT!

  12. So they leave out the real world so that the argument for capitalism can be anything they need it to be.

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