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Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson – What goes up: are predictions of a population crisis wrong?

Summary:
Changing fertility rates challenge dystopian visions and UN projections about the future of our overcrowded planet Some good news, World population may peak at below 9 billion and then start to go down. As people become urbanized they don't want so many children. In the field extra hands are useful, in a city an extra child is an extra mouth to feed. And women want careers and less children. These remarks offer a window on one of the most compelling questions of our time: how many people will fill the Earth? The United Nations Population Division projects that numbers will swell to more than 11 billion by the end of this century, almost 4 billion more than are alive today. Where will they live? How will we feed them? How many more of us can our fragile planet withstand? But a growing

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Changing fertility rates challenge dystopian visions and UN projections about the future of our overcrowded planet


Some good news, World population may peak at below 9 billion and then start to go down. As people become urbanized they don't want so many children. In the field extra hands are useful, in a city an extra child is an extra mouth to feed. And women want careers and less children.


These remarks offer a window on one of the most compelling questions of our time: how many people will fill the Earth? The United Nations Population Division projects that numbers will swell to more than 11 billion by the end of this century, almost 4 billion more than are alive today. Where will they live? How will we feed them? How many more of us can our fragile planet withstand?
But a growing body of opinion believes the UN is wrong. We will not reach 11 billion by 2100. Instead, the human population will top out at somewhere between 8 and 9 billion around the middle of the century, and then begin to decline.

ørgenRanders, a Norwegian academic who decades ago warned of a potential global catastrophe caused by overpopulation, has changed his mind. “The world population will never reach nine billion people,” he now believes. “It will peak at 8 billion in 2040, and then decline.”Similarly, Prof Wolfgang Lutz and his fellow demographers at Vienna’s International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis predict the human population will stabilise by mid-century and then start to go d Deutsche

Deutsche Bank report has the planetary population peaking at 8.7 billion in 2055 and then declining to 8 billion by century’s end.


The Guardian

Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson - What goes up: are predictions of a population crisis wrong?

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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