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Scott Barry Kaufman – The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized

Summary:
Are the most successful people in society just the luckiest people? This is based on an article I put out here sometime back, but this goes further into the subject, although it reaches the same conclusions. Tallent certainly helps you to become successful, but luck trumps all. So what did the simulation find? On the one hand, talent wasn't irrelevant to success. In general, those with greater talent had a higher probability of increasing their success by exploiting the possibilities offered by luck. Also, the most successful agents were mostly at least average in talent. So talent mattered. However, talent was definitely not sufficient because the most talented individuals were rarely the most successful. In general, mediocre-but-lucky people were much more successful than

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Are the most successful people in society just the luckiest people?


This is based on an article I put out here sometime back, but this goes further into the subject, although it reaches the same conclusions. Tallent certainly helps you to become successful, but luck trumps all.

So what did the simulation find? On the one hand, talent wasn't irrelevant to success. In general, those with greater talent had a higher probability of increasing their success by exploiting the possibilities offered by luck. Also, the most successful agents were mostly at least average in talent. So talent mattered.
However, talent was definitely not sufficient because the most talented individuals were rarely the most successful. In general, mediocre-but-lucky people were much more successful than more-talented-but-unlucky individuals. The most successful agents tended to be those who were only slightly above average in talent but with a lot of luck in their lives.
Scientific American 

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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