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CNN — Fiona Hill Says Putin Has America ‘Exactly Where He Wants Us’

Summary:
The headline is correct but the analysis is ridiculously off the mark. Fiona Hill claims that America is deeply divided internally and Russia is exploiting this weakness to further weaken the US. My take is that this view is has been highly exaggerated to the point of contributing to the weakness of the US. Meanwhile, the real story is being missed. The reality is that Russia is no longer dependent on the USD and export substitution owing to the sanctions has not only made Russia self-sufficient but it has also increased its exports. The falling oil price is pushing the RUB down relative to the USD, making Russia's exports less expensive. Weapons are Russia's second strongest export after natural resources, and these weapons are not at least equal to US weapons in effectiveness but

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The headline is correct but the analysis is ridiculously off the mark. Fiona Hill claims that America is deeply divided internally and Russia is exploiting this weakness to further weaken the US. My take is that this view is has been highly exaggerated to the point of contributing to the weakness of the US.

Meanwhile, the real story is being missed. The reality is that Russia is no longer dependent on the USD and export substitution owing to the sanctions has not only made Russia self-sufficient but it has also increased its exports.

The falling oil price is pushing the RUB down relative to the USD, making Russia's exports less expensive. Weapons are Russia's second strongest export after natural resources, and these weapons are not at least equal to US weapons in effectiveness but also less expensive.

Having achieved a modicum of dollar independence, gained economic self-sufficiency, and reached the point in military preparedness that no adversary can defeat it without incurring intolerable cost if not defeat, Russia is now position to go after the US shale industry, which depends on a high price of oil. Russia's production cost is about 20 USD a barrel and Russia is much less dependent on oil price after having addressed its case of Dutch disease.

So payback time. Russia has the US "exactly where it wants it." Economic warfare runs two ways. Well played, Vlad and team.

CNN
Fiona Hill Says Putin Has America ‘Exactly Where He Wants Us’

Kelley Mena

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Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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