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Coen Van Eenbergen – Huawei is heading towards bankruptcy, desperate for a way out

Summary:
U.S. President Trump has shown his cards. Huawei has to die. The only thing that can still save the Chinese company could be presidential candidate Joe Biden, a major retaliation from the Chinese government, which forces Trump to revise his policy or maybe the EU? If Huawei collapses, it not only means damage to the company and it’s employees but also for many suppliers and many European companies and consumers. To survive, Huawei might do a 50% deal with European company and move its headquarters to a Europe. It's unfair how Huawei is being treated, but a Huawei / European deal might actually be a good thing. It could create closer ties between Europe and China and reduce US hegenomy. If Germany keeps its ties with Russia because of Nord Stream ll, then we will be moving further

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U.S. President Trump has shown his cards. Huawei has to die. The only thing that can still save the Chinese company could be presidential candidate Joe Biden, a major retaliation from the Chinese government, which forces Trump to revise his policy or maybe the EU? If Huawei collapses, it not only means damage to the company and it’s employees but also for many suppliers and many European companies and consumers.


To survive, Huawei might do a 50% deal with European company and move its headquarters to a Europe. It's unfair how Huawei is being treated, but a Huawei / European deal might actually be a good thing. It could create closer ties between Europe and China and reduce US hegenomy. If Germany keeps its ties with Russia because of Nord Stream ll, then we will be moving further towards a multipolar world. 

If the U.S. would destroy a European company in this way, think of Shell, Volkswagen, ING, Siemens or Bosch, we would also like to see retaliation from European politicians. After all, it leads to enormous economic damage. Or what to think of the jobs that would be lost. Huawei has 194.000 employees worldwide, including thousands in Europe.

As far as we are concerned, the question is not whether the Chinese will retaliate, but when. The Chinese have a huge share in the supply industry of the United States, not to mention the share in the national debt of the U.S. We believe there is a good chance that the Chinese will take appropriate measures towards the U.S. economy. Many products in the United States will then become considerably more expensive as a result.

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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