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Enormous collapse in loans and leases in the latest week.

Summary:
Looks ominous on the surface, but there may be a very simple explanation.

Topics:
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Looks ominous on the surface, but there may be a very simple explanation.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

25 comments

  1. Wasn't aware of this..Thanks for the scoop Mike!!

  2. Going Stipe but it won't look like their last fight. Think Wilder vs Fury 2. Ngannou is expecting stick and move Stipe but Stipe should be aggressive with his hands, Ngannou got zero head movement.

    • ​@Michael Norman I agree in a general sense, but I don't think Stipe will have that same success he did last time unless he establishes his offence a bit first. It's too predictable and what Ngannou has been preparing for. The goal to get Ngannou to the ground is the same but it has to come more off of Stipes offence this time versus sticking and moving and timing takedowns as counters.

      Not sure if you watch boxing too, but Wilder vs Fury fights is what I'm thinking. Fury stuck and moved the whole fight and dominated, everyone thought he'd try to do the same in the second fight but he said "this guys technique stinks I'm gonna be way more aggressive this time". Expecting the same from Stipe tonight we shall see.

    • @Michael Norman Or go Jon Jones and poke the eye.

    • @Michael Norman Ngannou has been training with Kamaru Usman. I don't see him being held down, not in the early rounds, he's too big.

    • @Joshua Levy Usman is a good wrestler but he’s small. He’s not Stipe. Stipe’s also a great wrestler.

    • @Michael Norman Yes, but he's coaching, they bring in HWs for training, easy to find big wrestlers for sparring.

  3. any way to find out if banks are slowing down new loans?

  4. I was expecting you to say that part of it is also SLR constraints causing a lack of new loans which would otherwise offset partially the amount payed down.

    • Loan growth actually had been picking up recently. Prior to those stimulus checks loans had increased for 5 weeks straight.

  5. Stipe is an underrated GOAT, enjoy the fight.

  6. My man Stipe from my hometown!!!

  7. Stipe will make ngannou weep eh!

  8. Yep Stipe all day.

  9. With all this stimulus going into paying off debts, the new currency goes nowhere, it goes to the bank which destroys it. A chunk of private debt is shifted over to public debt. It takes stress off people, I thought it was intended to go into purchase of goods and services?

    • Yeah, about a quarter of it, at least in that week I mentioned.

    • No, the reserves are not destroyed. The bank keeps them. What is destroyed is the loan – the customer's liability and the bank's asset. So (from the bank's perspective) a higher risk asset is replaced with a no-risk asset. What are banks going to with the reserves? Buy treasuries of course.

    • @David Cann I disagree. I see it this way, there is one pool of dollars in the economy. Those dollars come from 2 places, bank credit and government currency. All the dollars end up in the same pool. The difference between credit and currency is the credit needs to be cleared, drained from the pool. Credit and currency are labels we use to flag dollars. When I take a $100 loan from the bank, no bank functions on full reserves, my signature creates the credit. I have a liability equal to the banks asset, everything is in balance. The $100 has entered the pool and can move around wherever, It could be at my bank, any other number of banks, or end up under someone's mattress. The loan being flagged as credit, added $100 to the total number of dollars that need to be drained from the pool. If I receive $100 in stimulus (currency) and use it to pay off the loan, the bank destroys the dollars and the loan. Effectively, $100 of private debt has been transferred to public debt. No, the bank doesn't keep the $100, what has changed is the total number of dollars that need to be drained from the pool has decreased by $100, that $100 may have already been used to buy treasuries.

  10. So, what you are really saying is that DEBT MONETIZATION is well underway in the USA – loans extinguished by Govt money printing aka fiscal 'stimulus'.

  11. As always, will be looking forward to Mondays MMT Report. You rock Mike! Hoorah!!!

  12. Ngannou's no joke, tho. I think a lot depends upon what he's evolved to. If at all. Stipe, on the other hand, looks trim and I wonder if that doesn't mean an evolution of his own

  13. Well, I guess we have our answer if Ngannou's evolved. WOW?

  14. It makes me laugh that the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 needed $700B bailout. Now we see trillions being thrown around and nobody even blinks.

  15. hey your website keeps redirecting me to a scam page you should make sure everything is ok

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