by Summary:
Most discussion of the Treasury market coming from people who are not rates strategists involves hoping for or predicting the collapse of the bond market. Nobody likes rates to be this low, and they are an insult to those people who studied Economics 101 and are certain that bond investors have the constitutional right to demand a particular real rate of return.It may very well be that the bond bears will be ultimately vindicated. However, the rule of thumb from previous cycles is that you do not want to be sitting in short positions too far in advance of the rate hike cycle. Negative carry adds up if you are stuck in a position for three years or more….Bond EconomicsFor Bond Bears, Patience Is A VirtueBrian Romanchuk
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Most discussion of the Treasury market coming from people who are not rates strategists involves hoping for or predicting the collapse of the bond market. Nobody likes rates to be this low, and they are an insult to those people who studied Economics 101 and are certain that bond investors have the constitutional right to demand a particular real rate of return.It may very well be that the bond bears will be ultimately vindicated. However, the rule of thumb from previous cycles is that you do not want to be sitting in short positions too far in advance of the rate hike cycle. Negative carry adds up if you are stuck in a position for three years or more….Bond EconomicsFor Bond Bears, Patience Is A VirtueBrian Romanchuk
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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Most discussion of the Treasury market coming from people who are not rates strategists involves hoping for or predicting the collapse of the bond market. Nobody likes rates to be this low, and they are an insult to those people who studied Economics 101 and are certain that bond investors have the constitutional right to demand a particular real rate of return.It may very well be that the bond bears will be ultimately vindicated. However, the rule of thumb from previous cycles is that you do not want to be sitting in short positions too far in advance of the rate hike cycle. Negative carry adds up if you are stuck in a position for three years or more….