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Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia

Summary:
A new modeling study from Australia confirms we'll need total vaccination coverage to exceed 85% of we're hoping to halt delta variant virus transmission. Conclusion: Vaccinating the vulnerable first is the optimal policy at low coverage, but vaccinating high transmitters becomes more important in settings where reproduction numbers are lower and coverage is higher. Vaccinating over 85% of the population including children would likely be needed to achieve herd immunity at the most plausible effective reproduction number of 5. Even without herd immunity, vaccines are highly beneficial at reducing deaths.Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia

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 A new modeling study from Australia confirms we'll need total vaccination coverage to exceed 85% of we're hoping to halt delta variant virus transmission. 

Conclusion: Vaccinating the vulnerable first is the optimal policy at low coverage, but vaccinating high transmitters becomes more important in settings where reproduction numbers are lower and coverage is higher. Vaccinating over 85% of the population including children would likely be needed to achieve herd immunity at the most plausible effective reproduction number of 5. Even without herd immunity, vaccines are highly beneficial at reducing deaths.


Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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