With models, it is easy to lose track of three essential points: (i) results depend on assumptions, (ii) changing the assumptions in apparently innocuous ways can lead to drastic changes in conclusions, and (iii) familiarity with a model’s name is no guarantee of the model’s truth. Under the circumstances, it may be the assumptions behind the model that provide the leverage, not the data fed into the model. This is a danger with experiments, and even more so with observational studies. David Freedman
Topics:
Lars Pålsson Syll considers the following as important: Statistics & Econometrics
This could be interesting, too:
Lars Pålsson Syll writes The history of econometrics
Lars Pålsson Syll writes What statistics teachers get wrong!
Lars Pålsson Syll writes Statistical uncertainty
Lars Pålsson Syll writes The dangers of using pernicious fictions in statistics
With models, it is easy to lose track of three essential points: (i) results depend on assumptions, (ii) changing the assumptions in apparently innocuous ways can lead to drastic changes in conclusions, and (iii) familiarity with a model’s name is no guarantee of the model’s truth. Under the circumstances, it may be the assumptions behind the model that provide the leverage, not the data fed into the model. This is a danger with experiments, and even more so with observational studies.