“The Term Spread As A Predictor”: Comments — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
I just saw a reference to a recent article by Dean Parker and Moritz Schularick: “The Term Spread as a Predictor of Financial Instability.” The article use the Macrohistory Database by Jordà, Schularick, and Taylor to look at the behaviour of the term spread (slope) between the 3-month rate and the 10-year bond yield in a number of countries over a long history around recession/financial crisis events. As expected, the slope inverts ahead of the event. They then looked at adding other factors to create a financial crisis predictive model. My article here are more general comments about the term spread behaviour.Bond Economics "The Term Spread As A Predictor": CommentsBrian Romanchukhttp://www.bondeconomics.com/2021/12/the-term-spread-as-predictor-comments.html

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

NewDealdemocrat writes Repeat home sale prices accelerated in February (but don’t fret yet)

Angry Bear writes Sorta a book review “Wall Street’s War on Workers”

NewDealdemocrat writes Looking at historical “mid cycle indicators” – what do they say now?

Ken Houghton writes 2024 Election Life and Death Game Theory: Post- Conventions (full text)