by The coming property correction is inevitable, and the extent of the impact on the overall economy depends highly on how it is managed. Just as the Chinese government has managed Evergrande’s default process, we implicitly assume that Beijing will demonstrate relative competence in mitigating systemic risks as part of the property correction.As such, our baseline scenario is reasonable if not deliberately more aggressive on the downside. For instance, our projection does not account for property demand from replacement of aging property nor factors like monetary easing. Even without accounting for those positive offsets, the overall growth impact is actually similar to that during the US-China trade war.Therefore, so long as Beijing manages this process well, the Chinese economy will
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
Lars Pålsson Syll writes When usefulness is more important than precision
Bill Haskell writes The Plan to destroy Obamacare
NewDealdemocrat writes The ISM services index, measuring 75% of the economy, sounds an ‘all clear’ – for now, anyway
Joel Eissenberg writes High fructose corn syrup and your health
The coming property correction is inevitable, and the extent of the impact on the overall economy depends highly on how it is managed. Just as the Chinese government has managed Evergrande’s default process, we implicitly assume that Beijing will demonstrate relative competence in mitigating systemic risks as part of the property correction.As such, our baseline scenario is reasonable if not deliberately more aggressive on the downside. For instance, our projection does not account for property demand from replacement of aging property nor factors like monetary easing. Even without accounting for those positive offsets, the overall growth impact is actually similar to that during the US-China trade war.
Therefore, so long as Beijing manages this process well, the Chinese economy will manage through the property correction. Of course, a hard landing is possible if this correction is mismanaged or spins out of control. We will examine the financial risks associated with a hard landing in a future analysis.
MacroPolo