by Summary:
If countries like the United States are imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports, it stands to reason that China should depend less on exports. Likewise, if countries are restricting technology transfer to Chinese companies, China must ensure that it can develop the technologies it needs without outside help....First Russia and now China driven to import substitution to achieve greater self-sufficiency. The next obvious step is Russia and China sharing technology and manufacturing capability and capacity. That is likely happening already. This will further undercut Western dominance. The great danger is that as a result the West will resort to war to maintain dominance as it looses leverage.China has a large enough domestic population to become self-sufficient, especially when it is
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If countries like the United States are imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports, it stands to reason that China should depend less on exports. Likewise, if countries are restricting technology transfer to Chinese companies, China must ensure that it can develop the technologies it needs without outside help....First Russia and now China driven to import substitution to achieve greater self-sufficiency. The next obvious step is Russia and China sharing technology and manufacturing capability and capacity. That is likely happening already. This will further undercut Western dominance. The great danger is that as a result the West will resort to war to maintain dominance as it looses leverage.China has a large enough domestic population to become self-sufficient, especially when it is
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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If countries like the United States are imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports, it stands to reason that China should depend less on exports. Likewise, if countries are restricting technology transfer to Chinese companies, China must ensure that it can develop the technologies it needs without outside help....First Russia and now China driven to import substitution to achieve greater self-sufficiency.
The next obvious step is Russia and China sharing technology and manufacturing capability and capacity. That is likely happening already. This will further undercut Western dominance. The great danger is that as a result the West will resort to war to maintain dominance as it looses leverage.
China has a large enough domestic population to become self-sufficient, especially when it is receiving Russia's natural resources to meet its development demand, which, of course, also benefits Russia and deprives other customers of what goes to China.
Russia is not all that significant to the US, although it is to Europe, but China is significant. Moreover, the loss of exports to China that will never be coming back after substitution is highly significant. Decoupling would be major.
Project Syndicate
Why China Continues to Rise
Zhang Jun, Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University, is Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-technological-development-despite-international-hostility-by-zhang-jun-2021-12