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Has a major crash begun?

Summary:
Investors panic over taper and rate hikes, but other factors suggest the economy will weather the storm and be okay.

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Investors panic over taper and rate hikes, but other factors suggest the economy will weather the storm and be okay.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

27 comments

  1. mike tell me something good please!

  2. What about the “shrinkage” from deficit and last bit of water in the pool. Can credit expansion reverse all this damage? Thanks for your great work Mike.

  3. 🩴🎤

  4. Instead of investing in healthcare, I believe the money should flow to industries to fix the supply chain. Too much money went to healthcare during the lockdown. 3d printing and renewable energy would economically sound to lower the cost of goods and services.

  5. You're always spot-on. None of the other business channels give your macro view!

  6. You handsome beast, Mike!

  7. US allows NATO to send American weapons into Ukraine. Could be a negative catalyst, know you’ve talked about it before. Thanks for the great content as always

  8. Well reasoned…well said. Thanks for your thoughts Mike.

  9. Mike I would start looking into these options dynamics. The dealer hedging flows are a real force. Markets are negative gamma and this is self reinforced selling. Good chance after this Friday's opex we bounce Tuesday or Wednesday next week

  10. ToHellor Barbados

    With an increasing tax take the net ends up at zero with a balanced budget, however large the outflow. This doesn't expand the economy, does it? The government outflows get taken back at an increased rate per unit of expenditure compared to deficit spending: they would have to exceed the tax take for expansion to occur. Please could you clarify this?

  11. Finance & Economics

    Enough people might believe in the correlation between higher rates and lower asset prices that it becomes more likely, as in a self fulfilling prophecy.

    I agree with your point that people are programmed to believe certain things, like higher stock prices are good, lower prices are bad. Lower prices create opportunities.

  12. Mike, please please please respond…I am reading that there's huge options expiry tomorrow that could crash the market….any truth to this…. please, just a yes or no sir.

  13. The same thing happened in the 1920's: Surpluses under pres Coolidge forced the private sector to resort to private credit that then popped in 1929 and thereby ending the long debt cycle (>1865).

  14. We have about 4-5 years before the big one….

  15. buy the dip DOW going to 45k

  16. Sven: '$SPX has tagged its 200MA' Could be a nice bounce next two weeks.

  17. Hey Mike, which sectors do you think are going to be more resilient during this year's flat momentum? I think I will be buying dips again on banks, tech sector market leaders, utilities and a few drug companies.

  18. #OpenBorders (& noncitizen voting*) #MadeAmericaGreat. (#MAGA!)

    * And yup, 1996 was also when Cuckservative wannabe Clinton ended this.

  19. Great work as always Mike!

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