by Summary:
Fed can't go more than 2.5% on rates or it will have no money left to transfer to the Treasury which it must do
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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Fed can't go more than 2.5% on rates or it will have no money left to transfer to the Treasury which it must do
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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| Fed can't go more than 2.5% on rates or it will have no money left to transfer to the Treasury which it must do |
Mike what do you think about recession possibilities? Difficult to soft land on the current environment
All the world’s a stage
it makes sense when its favored to make america last and to shove a boot up the ass of US citizens.
Mike I value your thoughts you mention you paid 11% interest rates, at that time bread was $25 cent and gas was dirt cheap houses were also 50-80 k now more like 300-400k just my thought but you are much smarter then me in this topic i'm just trying to understand. How do you buy the dip when more fears then ever that Nato will get involved and war will be elevated instead of sitting on the sideline?
I'm not uncertain about what Mike is explaining but the war is a wild card. Could it seriously escalate? Idk. I don't think it will get to nukes. Guy was asked a question. He answered. Probably best outcome now is some kind of Win-Win where Russia keeps Donbass, Ukraine gets some money to rebuild, and shit gets back to normal.
Question – does this mean that they would reduce the amount of reserves, so although the rate is higher, the amount they pay interest on is less?
It makes a ton of sense, Mike. I've said it before and said it again – the US can't use the light oil it produces. Refineries in the US need medium to heavy grades, which is critical for producing products like diesel and jet fuel.
Domestic production of oil has always been for the foreign market, end of story.
Oil isn't like turning on a tap and getting water.
Didn't know that about heavy oil. I thought it was just more of a PITA to refine.
@dilbertgeg It is more of a PITA, but it produces a greater variety of products, requiring advanced refinery infrastructure (which the US has). Light oil is easier to refine and is actually primarily consumed by countries with poorly developed refineries like Mexico. This is why the US needs to import and export oil.
The benchmark WTI is around 42 gravity, but the average oil that goes into refineries in the US is around 30-32, which is actually about exactly what Urals blend and Arab medium are. Iran heavy and Iran medium are around there as well. Those oils are what's considered "refinery ready."
@dilbertgeg The oil situation has the chance to fk the US in ways that people can't imagine right now. You're going to get about 2m barrels of prime refinery-grade Russian oil knocked off the market, and all of OPEC has about 2m barrels of spare capacity, and oil demand globally is expected to increase between 3-4m this year. Domestic production is irrelevant because it's not a grade that the US can use, and you're looking at 6-12mo lead time.
Analysts are predicting something like 2-3m global crude deficit over the next 3 quarters. Unless we get something like demand destruction that comes with a recession.
Tail risk is a constant play in the market for the time being.
Watch the movie "The Day After". It's free on youtube. It's a movie from the early 1980s about a nuclear war between USA and Russia. It's a fairly accurate scenario of what nuclear war would look like.
What's your views on housing and builders?
If Putin were to use Nuclear weapons, it would be the end of him. The oligarchs will assassinate him. If not them, then the citizens will rise up. He's destroyed their wealth and all their work.
As someone who doesn't live int he USA I found this explanation of the upper bound interest rate constraint informing.
I dont understand what is the problem with the US exporting all. There is plenty of causes where protectionism did not work or caused more problema down the line. The prices are set internationally. I agree that if the ecology is damaged you may not want to extract oil, that would depend on case by case i guess.
As for Argentina, what matters is the real interest rate. The inflation in Argentina is over 60%. Interest rate of 44% is not enough
Interest rates are going higher!
"The way the west is escalating this" The ranting ramblings of an insane man from his little white box.
I’m unsubscribing from this crap. The quality here is LOW.
Request: What's your current trading opinion on gold and silver? Or can you narrow it down to silver?
and the US also dropped 980 nuclear weapons on its self . . . . 🥴
I think u have rates wrong Mike, market will finish lower this year. It stands to reason, based on the mentality of the market, that higher rates are at least seen As a major headwind.
Thanks for helping make sense of this craziness ✌🏼👍🏼
Banks do lend depositor money right? so they do borrow short from deposits and lend them…or am i seeing this wrong?