by Summary:
Today I am not going to lay out any data or anything like that. I jut want to put down some thoughts on inflation. I will do so in the form of a Q&A as it will allow for a Devil’s Advocate sort of assessment. This is important because I think there are reasonable disagreements over whether inflation is here to stay or not.Inflation is here to stay unless or until there is a recession. e.g. from much higher prices or artificially imposed demand destruction by the central bank. The factors involved that he mentions don't appear to be relenting.Phil doesn't mention it but there are also other significant factors operative or that may become operative that involve a lot of uncertainty considering the level of instability in the world, again arising from many factors, most salient of which are
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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Today I am not going to lay out any data or anything like that. I jut want to put down some thoughts on inflation. I will do so in the form of a Q&A as it will allow for a Devil’s Advocate sort of assessment. This is important because I think there are reasonable disagreements over whether inflation is here to stay or not.Inflation is here to stay unless or until there is a recession. e.g. from much higher prices or artificially imposed demand destruction by the central bank. The factors involved that he mentions don't appear to be relenting.Phil doesn't mention it but there are also other significant factors operative or that may become operative that involve a lot of uncertainty considering the level of instability in the world, again arising from many factors, most salient of which are
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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Today I am not going to lay out any data or anything like that. I jut want to put down some thoughts on inflation. I will do so in the form of a Q&A as it will allow for a Devil’s Advocate sort of assessment. This is important because I think there are reasonable disagreements over whether inflation is here to stay or not.Inflation is here to stay unless or until there is a recession. e.g. from much higher prices or artificially imposed demand destruction by the central bank. The factors involved that he mentions don't appear to be relenting.
Phil doesn't mention it but there are also other significant factors operative or that may become operative that involve a lot of uncertainty considering the level of instability in the world, again arising from many factors, most salient of which are the course of wars, pandemics, effects of climate change, and political instability, including geopolitical.
For example, part of the recent inflation is the result of the need to green economies owing to impending effects of climate change. This issue will last throughout the transition period, which promises to be drawn out, e.g., political expediency since it will be difficult to convince people to accept the economic consequences. Similarly, addressing a pandemic involves a tradeoff between lockdowns and economic contraction. The expanding confliction in Europe and Asia is also exerting an inflationary influence, both as a result of sanctions and also diversion for real resources.
It would be difficult to put numbers on this in terms of the big picture, and a fortiori a time frame, so Phil doesn't attempt that here. The post is a short easy read.
Macrocosm
Why inflation is likely to stick around
https://macrocosm.substack.com/p/why-inflation-is-likely-to-stick
Philip Pilkington