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Fiscal is now recessionary. Not enough.

Summary:
Tax drain is now an everyday feature, with a few exceptions every month. However, those are not enough to avoid recession and rising unemployment. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/

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Tax drain is now an everyday feature, with a few exceptions every month. However, those are not enough to avoid recession and rising unemployment.



Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader.

https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/



Mike Norman Twitter

https://twitter.com/mikenorman



Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

32 comments

  1. If "Finland will end as Ukraine 2.0", next Generations Russian's paternal ancestry will be scarcely Russian.

    This is not the doomsday Putin driven narrative.

    There are not enough Syrian and Chechen 5ucker5 for Putin to even seriously fathom Finland.

    And I do believe that this generation's Finns are so far removed from WW2's Finns, but NATO or the EU may intervene which will have knocked Russia back to its starting point territorialy.

  2. Aleksey Desbanov

    Hai anna iam Nagendar Anna na age 42 vum.Monster qualification m.l.t medical lab technicianl ,Srpt lo jobs unte cheppagalaru anna.with govt Jobs

  3. Don't worry guys, There are going to be a lot of bankrupt companies you can play squeezes on soon. This is a more interesting time where Revlons and Redboxes can give u %500 daily profits😉. Enough of Apples and Googles sapping up all the liquidity that is meant to be gambled with instead🤑🤑🤑

  4. Despite the economic crisis, this is Still a good time to invest in Cryptocurrencies. Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today.

  5. Medicare will eat up the Social Security increase.

  6. The people running our countries and NATO in particular are crazy and entirely incapable of leading us through this Russia conflict. It is ONLY because I have a reasonable degree of confidence, probably based entirely in ignorance, that the Russian leadership is full of enough sober and smart leaders who will not bumble into a nuclear exchange with NATO.

  7. garyseeseverything

    Russia has it out for Finland and Romania since WW2. True US and NATO are pushing for WW3 makes me sick. If market crashes I will be sitting very handsome. I don’t believe this is the crash I see 40% upside

  8. Interest rate hikes have been the small jabs, but QT will be the big punch.

  9. Hi Mike you mentioned Fiscal is recessionary but we are already in a recession therefore having recessionary data it just depends if it will be a light one of not/depression is my thoughts

  10. Yep, WW3 would put a dampener on investing/trading etc…🤔

  11. Crazy times we are witnessing Mike, I hope your doing OK. We all need each other during times like this. We can't forget that.

    Good will prevail.

    Be safe Mike 🙏 ❤️

  12. Stock market is a never ending nightmare this year

  13. Why so grim about bearish? MMT, yes but don't have to be a permabull. Money can still be made in markets during bear/recession.

  14. Mike ben ook bang dat die dommeriken in Europa wereldoorlog 3 willen met Rusland !!!!!!!!

  15. Vincent Siniscal

    Keep it coming Mike! We need your wisdom even more when the markets are down.

    Maybe discuss some sectors that are performing and focus on value trades while fiscal support is weak?

    • Wisdom? He had you buying every single dip from historic unsustainable all time highs. All his personal indicators “using MMT” have failed miserably. If there were black swans you could say, “hey, no one saw that coming”. But that wasn’t the case. He’s just been incredibly wrong.

  16. Time to buy puts then

  17. Jelle Brinkhuis

    Russia thought it could take the whole of Ucraine within 2 weeks, so how can a country without military (as it was in 2021) be a threat? Why would NATO attack a second world (no sewer in many cities) country with 6000+ nukes? Listen to what Putin said about just taking Ucraine, about restoring Soviet times, look at history; Holodomor.

    Russia started the war in 2014 by occupying Crimea and Donbass, as they started wars in Georgia, Osethia, Chechenia…

    Of course Finland is joining NATO after being neutral, they are not going to wait for Russia to attack like 1939.

    Anyway, ES 4300 August 😉 Cheers.

  18. Cryptonite Clark

    Mike, could you explain why tax revenues continue, despite the deadline being on the 15th?

  19. Cryptonite Clark

    Mike, do you remember that in your video on 29/12/2020 you said that Biden was a hawk, and a risk to markets?

  20. Hey guys, I have a question for any of you. (Mike doesn't seem to engage in replies, but great question for Mike.)
    When we have changes with lowering deficits, meaning less net spending into the economy due to higher taxation, wouldn't the effects on this not get really felt by the economy in weeks or months into the future since we all know that the market traders don't follow fiscal, but rather only monetary policies? If the swimming pool is drained fast on Tuesday, I wouldn't expect Wednesday to see the stock market drop because of that unless most traders are aware of the pool drainage. Or am I missing something? I definitely follow Mike's mindset with MMT and I'm taking all of his great insights into consideration on a longer term strategy, but I think it might be hard to determine how short-term deficit changes affect short-term bull or bear swings.

    • It's a solid question. I'll share my thoughts whatever that's worth. With Mark to market accounting, I don't think there's necessarily any link between the stocks and flows in one asset, ie USD, and the price action of another.

      That said, companies seek profits, and the fiscal flows directly translate to income, which means more or less spending, and more or less profits. So that's how I would expect the stock market to be sensitive to USD flows. For an individual stock, maybe not a big deal, but for the market as a whole it's huge.

    • Thanks Derick

    • @Derek McDaniel Hi Derek, I was thinking about your reply. For the market as a whole, when spending offsets taxing by a good amount, I'm assuming that the aggregate of firms benefiting will not be known to the market until their combined financial statement releases over time. What I don't understand is Wednesday evening post by Mike, where he says Friday will be a big net positive for spending over taxing and expect the market to bounce up on Friday or Monday, so "consider going long" for a day or two before it tanks back down. Unless the market has an MMT hat on, I just don't see how market accounting can act that fast on a whole. Thoughts?

    • @Paul Dandurand Well everyone has income, and uses their observations as a consumer to assess what's going on. While that may be highly inaccurate, speculatively, markets are highly sensitive to any feedback and it doesn't take much to push them one way or the other. In the most direct sense, people take their income to bid on stocks. This as well can have positive feedback. But again, assets trade at relative prices, they aren't "put into" a stock, except during capital raises. So it would be more of a bidding feedback effect. The people more likely to bid higher, get income, then they can push bids higher.

      But this is one of those cases I think, where the mechanism doesn't matter so much, as long as there's a correlation. (which I don't know if there is, but mike has been trying to dial this down for a while). We can speculate about mechanisms, but at the end of the day, it is what it is.

      Now for something like unemployment, mechanisms matter a lot, but for correlations between the stock market and fiscal flows, I don't know that it does. I'm not a trader tho, got no money of my own.

    • @Derek McDaniel Thanks for your reply,.

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