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China’s ‘Bismarck’ moment is finally afoot — William Pesak

Summary:
Ambitious social security and health care reforms aim to coax the masses into saving less and consuming more   This could be big. Saving preference is inversely proportional to consumption preference. Saving reduces consumption spending, that is, demand. Low consumption to investment and low domestic to external are a major factors holding the Chinese economy back from expansion. Even the IMF is recommending a version of this — from the neoliberal perspective, of course. But China has its own plan in the works. Hopefully, it will be more welfare-oriented than stimulative-directed. Well targeted, that is, welfare-oriented, this kind of program would also be a factor in stabilizing China's population and reversing the present decline that will adversely affect growth over time absent

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Ambitious social security and health care reforms aim to coax the masses into saving less and consuming more   

This could be big. Saving preference is inversely proportional to consumption preference. Saving reduces consumption spending, that is, demand. Low consumption to investment and low domestic to external are a major factors holding the Chinese economy back from expansion. 

Even the IMF is recommending a version of this — from the neoliberal perspective, of course. But China has its own plan in the works. Hopefully, it will be more welfare-oriented than stimulative-directed. 

Well targeted, that is, welfare-oriented, this kind of program would also be a factor in stabilizing China's population and reversing the present decline that will adversely affect growth over time absent offsetting increases in productivity — which is one factor in China's emphasis on innovation.

This would also make China more self-sufficient, and it is likely that China is observing Russia's demonstrated success in achieving this.

Asia Times 
William Pesak  

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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