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Inflation Theories — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
I have been editing sections of my manuscript, and nothing out of that writing output is publishable here (since it is just a rehash of an earlier article). However, I am adding a new section on inflation theories that I will need to think about. This article summarises what I think I will cover.My manuscript is somewhat unusual in that I am mainly discussing the “known properties” of inflation, without offering a theory of inflation. The more usual situation is that people have extremely strong views on what explains inflation (and more often than not, these views contradict “known properties” of inflation). I decided to not cover inflation theories on the basis that it somewhat difficult to get good introductory information due to the huge mass of disinformation. By avoiding theory, the

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I have been editing sections of my manuscript, and nothing out of that writing output is publishable here (since it is just a rehash of an earlier article). However, I am adding a new section on inflation theories that I will need to think about. This article summarises what I think I will cover.

My manuscript is somewhat unusual in that I am mainly discussing the “known properties” of inflation, without offering a theory of inflation. The more usual situation is that people have extremely strong views on what explains inflation (and more often than not, these views contradict “known properties” of inflation). I decided to not cover inflation theories on the basis that it somewhat difficult to get good introductory information due to the huge mass of disinformation. By avoiding theory, the manuscript statements are relatively safe to make, and so my manuscript itself hopefully stays out of the “disinformation” category.

Note that I when I refer to “inflation theory” I mean “a means to predict future inflation rates” and not things like “how to calculate inflation?” or “what are the side effects of inflation?” Furthermore, when I refer to “inflation” I have the annual rate of change of CPI (or equivalent) in mind....

Bond Economics
Inflation Theories
Brian Romanchuk
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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