Blogger RJS, Marketwatch 666, September jobs report September Summary Major agency reports released this past week included the the Employment Situation Summary for September from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the August report on our International Trade from the Commerce Dept, and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August, and the August report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories, both from the Census Bureau…in addition, the Fed released the Consumer Credit Report for August, which indicated that overall consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, grew at a seasonally adjusted .4 billion in August, or at a 4.0% annual rate, as non-revolving credit expanded at a 4.1% rate to ,345.3
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Blogger RJS, Marketwatch 666, September jobs report
September Summary
Major agency reports released this past week included the the Employment Situation Summary for September from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the August report on our International Trade from the Commerce Dept, and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August, and the August report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories, both from the Census Bureau…in addition, the Fed released the Consumer Credit Report for August, which indicated that overall consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, grew at a seasonally adjusted $14.4 billion in August, or at a 4.0% annual rate, as non-revolving credit expanded at a 4.1% rate to $3,345.3 billion while revolving credit outstanding grew at a 3.6% rate to $1,001.6 billion…
This week’s major privately issued reports included the ADP Employment Report for September, the September Services Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who reported their Services PMI rose to 61.9% in September, up from 61.7% in August, indicating a slightly larger majority of service industry purchasing managers reported expansion in various facets of their business in September, and the Mortgage Monitor for August (pdf) from Black Knight Financial Services, who reported that 4.00% of mortgages were delinquent in August, down from the 4.14% that were delinquent in July, and down from the 6.88% delinquency rate of August of 2020, and that 0.27% of mortgages remained in the foreclosure process in August, up from the record low of 0.26% in July, but down from the 0.35% of mortgages that were in foreclosure a year ago . . . however, with the lifting of the government imposed foreclosure moratorium in July, the Mortgage Monitor also shows that foreclosure starts rose from 4,200 in July to 7,100 in August…
Employers Add 194,000 Jobs in September; Unemployment Rate Fell to 4.8% as Labor Force Participation Rate Declined
Employment Situation Summary for September
Showed the smallest increase in payroll jobs so far this year, but that the unemployment rate fell by 0.4% to 4.8%, even as the labor force participation rate fell by 0.1% to to 61.6%….estimates extrapolated from the establishment survey data projected that employers added a seasonally adjusted 194,000 jobs in September, after the previously estimated payroll job increase for July was revised up from 1,053,000 to 1,091,000 and the payroll jobs increase for August was revised up from 235,000 to 366,000, revisions which mean that the combined number of jobs created over those two months was 169,000 more than was previously reported, and that this report shows 363,000 more jobs than last months . . . despite the past year’s steady job gains, however, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls are still 4,970,000 below their pre-pandemic level……the unadjusted data, meanwhile, shows that there were actually 654,000 more payroll jobs in September, largely due to job increases relating to the beginning of the school year, and that the seasonal adjustment brought the headline jobs number down to a level where that normal September increase was negated…
Seasonally adjusted job increases in September
Were seen throughout the private goods producing and service sectors, with only jobs in government seeing a net seasonally adjusted employment decrease of 123,000 jobs, as local school systems added 144,200 fewer jobs and state universities adding 16,600 fewer jobs than is normal for September, shortfalls from the norm which are logged as decreases . . . a similar dynamic played out for employment in private educational services stats; while 248,600 more were working in private education in September than in August, it’s reported as an 18,900 job decrease . . . mean while, jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector accounted for a seasonally adjusted increase of 74,000 jobs in September, with an increase of 43,000 jobs in performing arts and spectator sports, 29,000 jobs in bars and restaurants and 16,900 more employed in amusements, gambling, and recreation . . . the broad professional and business services category added 60,000 jobs, as 15,100 were hired by architectural and engineering services, 15,200 more were hired by management and technical consulting services, and 8,800 found jobs with computer systems design and related services. The retail sector saw an increase of 56,100 jobs, with 27,300 finding jobs in clothing stores, 16,100 more in general merchandise stores, and 16,000 more working for building material and garden supply stores . . . in addition, the transportation and warehousing sector added 47,300 jobs, including 12,500 couriers and messengers and 15,600 working in warehousing and storage facilities . . . at the same time, there were 32,000 more jobs in the information industry, with 13,700 hired by the motion picture and sound recording industries and 11,000 more in publishing of books, magazines and newspapers…employment in social assistance rose by 29,800, led by the addition of 17,800 jobs with child care services and 10,200 jobs in individual and family services….meanwhile, employment in manufacturing increased by 26,000, with 8,200 of those working in the manufacture of fabricated metal products and 6,300 more in the manufacture of machinery…in addition, construction employment rose by 22,000, with 11,400 of those jobs with nonresidential specialty trade contractors….other September job additions included 17,000 jobs in wholesale trade, 4,000 jobs in resource extraction, and 2,000 jobs in the financial sector, while health care employment fell by 17,500 despite the addition of 28,200 jobs in ambulatory healthcare services, as hospitals lost 8,100 jobs and nursing homes and residential care facilities employed 37,600 fewer than a month earlier…
The establishment survey also showed that average hourly pay for all employees rose by 19 cents an hour to $30.85 an hour, after it had increased by a revised 11 cents an hour in August; at the same time, the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 14 cents to $26.15 an hour….employers also reported that the average workweek for all private payroll employees rose by 0.2 hour to 34.8 hours in September, while hours for production and non-supervisory personnel rose by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours, after their workweek had been unchanged for the 3rd month in a row in August…at the same time, the manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.4 hours after falling 0.2 hours in August, while average factory overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours…
Seasonally adjusted extrapolation from the September household survey
indicated that the number of those who would self-report being employed rose by an estimated 526,000 to 153,680,000, while the similarly estimated number of those who would qualify as being unemployed fell by 710,000 to 7,674,000; and hence the civilian labor force decreased by a rounded net of 183,000…since the working age population had grown by 155,000 over the same period, that meant the number of employment aged individuals who were not in the labor force rose by 338,000 to 100,412,000, which combined with the lower labor force, was enough to lower the labor force participation rate from 61.7% to 61.6% . . . however, the relatively large increase in number employed was still enough to boost the employment to population ratio, which we could think of as an employment rate, as it rose from 58.5% to 58.7%…at the same time, the relatively large drop in the number unemployed was also enough to lower the unemployment rate by 0.4%, from 5.2% to 4.8%, which was the lowest unemployment rate since March 2020 . . . meanwhile, the number of the employed who reported they were forced to accept just part time work fell by 1,000 to 4,468,000 in September, while the alternative measure of unemployment, U-6, which includes those “employed part time for economic reasons”, fell from 8.8% of the labor force in August to 8.5% in September, now the lowest since February 2020….
Like most reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the employment situation press release itself is easy to read and understand, so you can get more details on these two reports from there . . . note almost every paragraph in the release points to one or more of the tables that are linked to on the bottom of the release, and those tables are also on a separate html page here that you can open it along side the press release to avoid the need to scroll up and down the page..