RJS, MarketWatch 666, “CPI Rose 0.6% in January on Higher Prices for Food, Clothing, Electricity, Used Vehicles, & Furniture; Annual Inflation Now at a 40 Year High” The consumer price index rose 0.6% in January, as higher prices for food, clothing, rent, electricity, used vehicles, airfares, furniture, and appliances and were only slightly offset by lower prices for gasoline, utility gas, and car and truck rentals . . . the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that seasonally adjusted prices averaged 0.6% higher in January, after rising by a revised 0.6% in December, by 0.7% in November, by 0.9% in October, by 0.4% in September, by 0.3% in August, by 0.5% in July, by 0.9% in June, by 0.7% in May, by 0.6% in
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RJS, MarketWatch 666, “CPI Rose 0.6% in January on Higher Prices for Food, Clothing, Electricity, Used Vehicles, & Furniture; Annual Inflation Now at a 40 Year High”
The consumer price index rose 0.6% in January, as higher prices for food, clothing, rent, electricity, used vehicles, airfares, furniture, and appliances and were only slightly offset by lower prices for gasoline, utility gas, and car and truck rentals . . . the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that seasonally adjusted prices averaged 0.6% higher in January, after rising by a revised 0.6% in December, by 0.7% in November, by 0.9% in October, by 0.4% in September, by 0.3% in August, by 0.5% in July, by 0.9% in June, by 0.7% in May, by 0.6% in April, by 0.6% in March, 0.4% in February, and by 0.2% last January, with all those figures revised from a month ago based on a new seasonal adjustment computation . . . the unadjusted CPI-U index, which was originally set with prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 278.802 in December to 281.148 in January, which left it statistically 7.4799% higher than the index reading of 261.582 in January of last year, which is reported as a 7.5% year over year increase, up from the 7.0% year over year increase reported a month ago, and the greatest one year price increase since February 1982 . . . with both food and energy prices rising in line with the overall index increase, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude food and energy, were also up by 0.6% for the month, as the unadjusted core price index rose from 283.908 to 285.996, which left the core index 6.0206% ahead of its year ago reading of 269.755.
St. Louis Fed reported a 6.0% year over year increase, up from the 5.5% year over year core price increase reported in December. It is the greatest year over year core price increase since September 1982 . . .
The graph above depicts the magnitude of the year over year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (click on it for a bigger picture). While it’s clear prices have recently spiked, it doesn’t compare to the 10 years of price increases in the 70s, when each year’s greater price increases were compounded on the prior year’s.
The volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index rose 0.9% in January, after rising by a revised 0.9% in December, by 2.4% in November, by 3.7% in October, by 1.2% in September, and by 1.9% in August, and is now 27.0% higher than in January of a year ago . . . the price index for energy commodities was 0.6% lower in January, while the price index for energy services was 2.9% higher, after it had risen 0.3% in December . . . the energy commodity index was down 0.6% on a 0.8% decrease in the price of gasoline, even as there was a 9.5% increase in the price of fuel oil at the same time, while prices for other energy commodities, including propane, kerosene, and firewood, were on average 3.0% lower…within energy services, the price index for utility gas service fell 0.5% after falling 0.3% in December but is still 23.9% higher than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index rose 2.4% in January after rising 0.5% in December . . . energy commodities are still averaging 39.9% higher than their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 40.0% higher than they were a year ago, while the energy services price index is now up 13.6% from last January, as electricity prices are now 10.7% higher than a year ago…
Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted food price index rose 0.9% in January, after rising by 0.5% in December, by 0.8% in November, by 0.9% in October, by 0.9% in September, by 0.4% in August, and by 0.7% in July, as the price index for food purchased for use at home was 0.4% higher in January, after rising by 0.4% in December, by 0.9% in November, and by 0.9% in October, while the index for food bought to eat away from home was 0.7% higher, as average prices at both fast food outlets and at full service restaurants rose 0.7%, while food prices at employee sites and schools averaged 0.2% lower…
Food at home categories Indexes increased. Price index for cereals and bakery products was 1.8% higher, as average bread prices rose 1.1%, The price index for rice, pasta, and cornmeal rose 2.1%. The price index for flour and prepared flour mixes rose 2.9% and the price index for cookies rose 2.9%. Sweet rolls, coffeecakes, and doughnuts price index rose 2.8%, and the price index for fresh cakes and cupcakes rose 2.4%.
In addition, the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs food group was 0.3% higher, even though the price index for beef and veal fell 1.3%, as the price index for ham rose 2.5%, the price index for poultry rose 0.8%, the price index for fresh fish and seafood rose 2.4%, and the price index for eggs rose 2.0% . . . meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted price index for dairy products was 1.1% higher, as milk prices rose 1.8%, and the price index for cheese and related products rose 1.2% . . . at the same time, the fruits and vegetables price index was 0.9% higher, as the price index for citrus fruits rose 3.4%, the price index for canned fruits rose 3.9%, and the price index for processed fruits and vegetables other than those canned or frozen rose 1.4% . . . however, the beverages price index was unchanged, as the price index for carbonated drinks fell 2.8%, the price index for frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks fell 1.8%, while the price index for coffee rose 2.7% and price index for other beverage materials including tea rose 1.1%….lastly, the price index for the ‘other foods at home’ category rose 1.6%, as the price index for sugar and sweets rose 1.6%, the price index for fats and oils rose 1.9%, the price index for soups rose 1.4% and the price index for frozen and freeze dried prepared foods was 3.7% higher….
The itemized list for price changes of over 100 separate food items is included at the beginning of Table 2 for this release, which also gives us a line item breakdown for prices of more than 200 CPI items overall . . . since last January, the price index for uncooked beef steaks is still up 17.1%, the price index for uncooked beef roasts is up 19.2%, the price index for ground beef is up 13.0%, the price index for other beef and veal is up 17.9%, the price index for bacon, breakfast sausage, and related products is up 16.0%, the price index for ham is up 10.0%, the price index for pork chops is up 14.5%, the price index for “other pork including roasts, steaks, and ribs” is up 14.2%, the price index for fresh and frozen chicken parts is up 11.6%, the price index for fresh fish and seafood is up 12.7%, the price index for eggs is up 13.1%, the price index for flour and prepared flour mixes is up 10.3%, the price index for citrus fruit is up 10.6%, and the price index for ‘other fats and oils including peanut butter’ but not butter or margarine is up 15.5%, while the price of food at employee sites and schools has fallen 46.9% over the past year, on a 59.8% drop in food prices at elementary and secondary schools…
Among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose by 0.6% in January after rising by 0.6% in December, by 0.5% in November, by 0.6% in October, by 0.3% in September, by 0.2% in August, and by 0.3% in July, the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 1.0% higher in January, while the more heavily weighted composite for all services less energy services rose 0.4%….
Among the goods components, which will be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust January’s retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the price index for household furnishings and supplies was 1.6% higher, as the price index for appliances rose 1.5%, the price index for furniture and bedding rose 2.4%. the price index for dishes and flatware rose 4.0%, the price index for tools, hardware and household supplies rose 2.4%, the price index outdoor equipment and supplies rose 2.1% and the price index for household cleaning products rose 1.9% . . . at the same time, the apparel price index was 1.1% higher on a 2.8% increase in the price index for men’s suits, sport coats, and outerwear, a 2.4% increase in the price index for men’s shirts and sweaters, a 1.6% increase in the price index for women’s dresses, a 6.5% increase in the price index for women’s outerwear, a 3.3% increase in the price index for girl’s apparel, a 4.2% increase in the price index for infants’ and toddlers’ apparel, and a 2.4% increase in the price index for boys’ and girls’ footwear . . . in addition, the price index for transportation commodities other than fuel was 0.9% higher, even though prices for new cars and trucks were unchanged, as prices for used cars and trucks were 1.5% higher, tire prices were 2.4% higher, and the price index for motor oil, coolant, and fluids rose 2.9% . . . meanwhile, the price index for medical care commodities was 0.9% higher. as prescription drug prices rose 1.3%, but nonprescription drug prices fell 0.4%, while the price index for medical equipment and supplies was 1.3% higher . . . in addition, the recreational commodities index was 1.0% higher despite a 1.4% decrease in TV prices, on a 1.8% increase in the price index for pets, pet supplies, accessories, a 2.3% increase in the price index for music instruments and accessories, and a 2.9% increase in the price index for sporting goods including bicycles . . . at the same time, the education and communication commodities index was 0.3% higher on a 1.1% increase in the price index for smartphones, a 3.2% increase in the price index for college textbooks, and a 0.6% increase in the price index for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants . . . lastly, a separate price index for alcoholic beverages was 0.4% higher, while the price index for ‘other goods’ was 0.8% higher on a 1.1% increase in the price index for hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products and a 3.5% increase in the price index for miscellaneous personal goods . . . the consumer price index for commodities less food and energy commodities is now up 11.7% from a year ago, the largest annual rise in that index since April 1975…
We’ll also include a long term graph of that composite price index for all commodities less food and energy commodities below; “imo,” the BLS made an unfortunate word choice by using ‘commodities’ to describe this index, as it does not refer to what most people would think of as commodities, but rather the prices of those goods sold at retail, after excluding groceries and gasoline price changes . . . this is the index we use to deflate core retail sales…again, click on the graph for a better picture of it…
Within core services, the price index for shelter was 0.3% higher as rents rose 0.4% and homeowner’s equivalent rent was 0.4% higher, while prices for lodging away from home at hotels and motels fell 4.2%, while at the same time the shelter sub-index for water, sewers and trash collection was 0.9% higher, and the price index for domestic services was also 0.9% higher . . . in addition, the price index for medical care services was 0.6% higher, as the price index for services by medical professionals other than doctors, dentists, and optometrists rose 2.5% and the price index for health insurance rose 2.7% . . . at the same time, the transportation services price index was 1.0% higher even though the price index for car and truck rentals fell 7.0%, as the price index for airline fares rose 2.3%, the price index for motor vehicle body work rose 0.6%, and the price index for motor vehicle insurance rose 0.9% . . . meanwhile, the recreation services price index rose 0.8% as the price index for cable and satellite television service rose 1.3%, the price index for video discs rentals and other media services rose 0.9%, the price index for photographers and photo processing rose 1.0%, and the price index for veterinarian services rose 0.8% . . . at the same time, the index for education and communication services was 0.1% higher as the price index for elementary and high school tuition and fees rose 0.2%, the price index for delivery services rose 2.5%, and the price index for residential telephone services rose 1.0% . . . lastly, the index for other personal services was 0.7% higher as the price index for haircuts and other personal care services laundry and dry cleaning services was 1.2% higher and the price index for laundry and dry cleaning services was 0.8% higher…
Among core line items, the price index for admission to sporting events, which has risen 23.5% since last January, the price index for car and truck rental, which is still 29.3% higher than a year ago, the price index for used car and trucks, which is now up 40.5% from a year ago, the price index for new cars, which has risen 12.0% over the same span, the price index for new trucks, which is up 12.1% since last January, the price index for sports vehicles including bicycles, which is now 10.5% higher than a year ago, the price index for tires, which is up 12.4% over the same period, the price index for vehicle body work, which is now up 10.8% year over year, the price index for motor oil, coolant, and fluids which has risen 12.7% since last January, the price index for lodging away from home including at hotels and motels, which has now risen 23.6% from a year ago, the price index for bedroom furniture, which has risen 13.7% year over year, the price index for living room, kitchen and dining room furniture, which is now up 19.9% over the last 12 months, the price index for “other” furniture, which is up 15.2% from a year ago, the price index for outdoor equipment and supplies, which has risen 11.9% over the same span, the price index for window coverings, which has risen 16.2% since last January, the price index for men’s suits, sport coats, and outerwear, which is up 13.6% from a year ago, the price indices for women’s dresses and for women’s outerwear, which are both up 11.1% year over year, and the price index for checking account and other bank services, which has risen 14.4% since last year, have all seen prices rise by more than 10% over the past year, while the price index for smartphones, which has fallen 13.3% from a year ago, is the only core line item to have decreased in price by a double digit magnitude over that one year span…