by I just heard an advertisement for Kamala Harris in which she said she would raise taxes on the rich and cut taxes for the middle class. I was pleased. I note the empirical fact that, in years when the income tax is constitutional yet the top marginal tax rate is below 69%, nonincumbent Democrats are elected president if and only if they promise to raise taxes on high incomes and cut taxes for the middle class. I usually do not make predictions (I haven’t since 2004). I merely note the pattern In 2016 I was convinced there would be an exception to the rule/stylized fact. Clinton proposed increasing taxes on the rich and a large number of tax cuts directed at families for whom they would do the most good. Like many people I expected her to get
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I just heard an advertisement for Kamala Harris in which she said she would raise taxes on the rich and cut taxes for the middle class. I was pleased. I note the empirical fact that, in years when the income tax is constitutional yet the top marginal tax rate is below 69%, nonincumbent Democrats are elected president if and only if they promise to raise taxes on high incomes and cut taxes for the middle class.
I usually do not make predictions (I haven’t since 2004). I merely note the pattern
In 2016 I was convinced there would be an exception to the rule/stylized fact. Clinton proposed increasing taxes on the rich and a large number of tax cuts directed at families for whom they would do the most good. Like many people I expected her to get elected. I didn’t mind the fact that my slylized fact would become a stylized falsehood. Sadly it didn’t.
appendix on the data
Until February 3, 1913 the income tax was unconstitutional so Wilson 2012 and earlier cases are not exceptions. In 1932 the top income tax rate was 69% (you know it was not a multiple of 10 for a sneaky reason). in 1960 the top marginal tax rate was 91%,. In 1976 it was 70%. Clinton promised to raise taxes on high incomes (and did) and promised to cut middle class taxes (and broke the promise). Obama promised to raise taxes on high incomes and did and promised $1000 for 95% of working US families. IN the event he only delivered $800. Biden Promised to raise taxes on high incomes and to give families $2000 between the Manchin bipartisan stimulus ($600) and the American Rescue Plan’s $1400 the $2000 were delivered.
Mondale promised higher taxes on high incomes and the same taxes on incomes under $30,000 (roughly median income then). He was hammered. Dukakis promised improved tax enforcement and didn’t promise tax cuts. He lost. Gore promised a lockbox. He lost. Kerry ??? I don’t remember and he lost in 2004 (the last time I made a prediction). He lost. Clinton promised many well designed tax credits aimiing for optimal policy. She lost.
Harris made me worry a bit that my rule would fail and worry a whole lot that it wouldn’t. But now she will fit the pattern if she wins.
I stress that I am not making a prediction.