The Angry Bear

Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: BA.2 likely only causes a ripple; and on track for record low daily deaths This is a good time to look at the impact – or, better speaking, the lack thereof – of the BA.2 Omicron variant in the US. Nationwide the 7 day average was 28,961 yesterday: This is the lowest since last July, and lower than all but about 3.5 months since the end of March 2020. Only late spring 2020 and from mid-May through...

You had to be around in 1973 to understand what happened when the Middle East decided to cut back on oil. At first, they thought the US would react harshly and invade. We did not. Instead, there were long lines where I lived. If I was near my university on the outskirts of Chicago, the lines did not exist. So, I would fill up my Datsun 510 and scoot home. At times I would take a gas can with me, get it filled, so we could fill up the tractor at...

I am thinking about computers taking over the world. Given my age, for me, the classic reference is “Terminator” in which “SkyNet” becomes self aware and takes over the world. As made movie sense at the time SkyNet was a US Department of Defence project as was the ARPAnet mother of the mother of the mother of the World Wide Web. Frankly, I find that implausible now. If it were a DOD project, Congress would have appropriated funds to start it, then...

March jobs report: yet another strong showing for jobs and unemployment; while strong wage growth nevertheless likely lags inflation Here are the three main trends I was most interested in this month: 1. Is the pace of job growth beginning to decelerate?  2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? 3. Are the leading indicators in the report beginning to flag? The answers were: 1. The 6 month average of monthly gains, which...

This might be a very long confused post or might be a series of confused posts. I am trying to think about what to do about Putin (assuming he isn’t overthrown in a palace coup). My first thought was that this is not time for increased military spending . The Russian military turns out to be much less capable than we thought. There is no reason to guess that the Chinese, North Korean, Iranian, or other potential trouble maker militaries are...

As we rounded out the month of March the USDA has been busy assessing the planted acres around the United States, reported the 31st of March. Much to my prior post, there are not really any surprises as the data has indicated that the planting is mirroring last year…with a few caveats, most namely the switch of 4% moving to soy from corn. Let’s take a look at the estimates from the FBN group and their phone survey they conducted a week or so ago...

by Joseph Joyce When Safe Assets Are No Longer Safe The U.S. has long benefitted from its ability to issue “safe assets” to the rest of the world. These usually take the form of U.S. Treasury bonds, although there was a period before the 2008-09 global financial crisis when mortgage-backed securities with Triple A ratings were also used for this purpose. The inflow of foreign savings has offset the persistent current account deficits, and put...

RJS, MarketWatch 666 4th Quarter GDP Grew at a 6.9% Rate, Revised from a 7.0% Rate, as PCE Revised Lower The Third Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 6.9% rate in the quarter, revised from the 7.0% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as a steep downward revision to personal consumption expenditures more than offset a big upward...

The worse the outcome of a Russian victory in Ukraine, the stronger the case for providing Ukraine with the weapons and supplies it needs to defeat the Russian invasion.  Russian atrocities clearly strengthen the case for arming Ukraine.  The very real prospect of ethnic genocide following a Russian victory strengthens the case further: Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which...