The Angry Bear

July jobs report: more like this, please While the NBER has declared that the recession ended in April 2020, and income, sales, and GDP have all fully recovered, two of the series that the NBER uses have yet to have made a full recovery: Industrial production, still down -1.2% compared with February 2020, and employment, still down -4.4% as of the jobs report last month. So the main questions for this month’s jobs report for July are how much...

Coronavirus dashboard for August 4: in which I see reason for optimism by New Deal democrat   It seems pretty clear that Delta burns through the dry tinder very fast – on the order of 9 to 12 weeks from onset to peak, based on the experience of the UK and India, respectively. The US is 7 weeks past its trough in cases, so it is a fair hypothesis that the Delta wave will reach its peak at some point in the next 2 to 5 weeks – roughly at some...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for August 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although the Delta wave is raging, nothing is impacting behavior. Neither producers nor consumers appear to have altered their behavior in any significant way at all because of the Delta. As usual, clicking through and reading will bring you right up to date on the economy, and bring me a little pocket change...

There is another world and economy out there which we do not see or hear much from other than when we talk politics and then we wonder why views may be different than ours. Michael Smith has been adding an agricultural dimension to the Bear which I think we need to understand. Years back, I did a post which I caught some grief on because some thought I was in support of certain beliefs. In reality, there was a larger picture to what I wrote back...

The absolute general law of capitalist accumulation is what “our pamphleteer” overlooked.. Our pamphleteer overlooks two things: The greater the social wealth, the functioning capital, the extent and energy of its growth, and, therefore, also the absolute mass of the proletariat and the productiveness of its labour, the greater is the industrial reserve army. The same causes which develop the expansive power of capital, develop also the...

Israel Pays For Bibi’s Successful Campaign Against The JCPOA Iran Nuclear Agreement  In the last few days for the first time in many years, northern Israel has been on the receiving end of rockets fired out of southern Lebanon, the territory under the control of the Shia Hezbollah group long supported by Iranian interests, although apparently, some think that it was Palestinians living in this area who fired the rockets. Even if it was, clearly...

on Surge in Imports of Industrial Supplies and Materials, Commenter/Blogger RJS at MarketWatch 666 US trade deficit was at a record high in June after rising by 6.7% from May, as the value of both our exports and our imports increased, but our imports increased by nearly five times as much . . . the Commerce Department report on our international trade in goods and services for June indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services...

Tags: open thread

The American Right Schmoozes Hungary’s Orban  Fox News’s biggest star, Tucker Carlson, is broadcasting this week from Budapest where a political festival is happening under the aegis of Hungarian leader, Victor Orban.  As observers have noted, Orban has engaged in a gradual process of turning Hungary from a functioning EU democracy into an authoritarian state that maintains a veneer of democracy. Crucial to this is control over most of the media...

Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline Initial jobless claims declined another 14,000 this week to 385,000, still 17,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,000 set on June 26 and July 10. The 4 week average of claims declined by 250 to 394,000, also 9,500 above its pandemic low set on July 11: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims remains stalled, as it has for the last 2...