The Angry Bear

A macro view of how the 2020 Presidential election differs from 2016 This is a light week for economic data, so don’t be surprised if I take a break for a day or two. In the meantime, I wanted to post a few graphs that I think give a good “macro” view of the Presidential election this year, and how it is different from 2016. Aside from the fact that Trump now has a nearly 4 year record, and Presidential elections are usually a referendum on the...

by Joseph Joyce The Return of Global Imbalances? The global economic contraction following the pandemic has led to a massive fiscal response. Governments have acknowledged the need to increase spending in order to offset the declines in consumption and investment. The decreases in public savings can lead to rising current account deficits that offset the capital inflows needed to cover the gap between savings and investment. But will these measures...

[embedded content]The lies and politics in this are so deep, it defies explanation. How can someone defend Rand’s decision? I sit and listen to this and then I listen to McConnell say the Repubs will appoint a new SCOTUS Justice shortly disallowing a new president from doing so. There is no honor in these people. They would just as soon sell us into slavery if it allows them the status to maintain their position. How will history judge these liars?...

The 2020 Presidential and Senate polling nowcast: shift in the control of the Senate to democrats looks increasingly likely Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical...

Democratic Despotism: “We find latent in their conception of law— and some have been publicly preaching this view— that law emanates solely from the will of the majority of the people, and can, therefore, be modified at any time to meet majority wishes. This doctrine is absolutely totalitarian, and is contrary to our basic conceptions of the source of law. We have seen that our political system is predicated on the doctrine that there are some immutable...

Easily lost in the news of the day, from the NYT: President Xi Jinping of China pledged on Tuesday that his country would adopt much stronger climate targets and achieve what he called “carbon neutrality before 2060.” If realized, the pledges would be crucial in the global fight against climate change. This may be mostly PR, but it may signal a significant increase in China’s commitment to decarbonization.  We will learn more as details are provided and...

Steve Hutkins of Save The Post Office updates us on the “Jones vs USPS” suit filed in United States District Court for the Southern District of New York. He has been live-blogging the events from Save The Post Office blog. September 21, 2020 Big news today: The plaintiffs have won a second suit against the Postal Service. The judge in Jones v USPS, Victor Morrero of the SDNY, has ordered a preliminary injunction preventing the Postal Service from enacting...

The “Trump Effect” On Happiness  In a column in yesterday’s Washington Post, Dana Milbank has written on “Trump has made our lives worse. Here’s the proof.”  He labels this apparent outcome of the “Trump Effect.” Since 1972 the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago has annually studied the nation’s mood. They survey people to find out how they identify their level of happiness. As of this summer, an all-time record low of...

“The US is a white Christian country. Everyone else is here on sufferance:” Donald Trump, James II, and the Glorious Revolution – by New Deal democrat For the past year +, I have been reading about the History of Republics -really, a History of the Rule of Law – that has taken me through Ancient Rome, Venice, Genoa, Florence, Switzerland, the Dutch Republic, and currently the Glorious Revolution of 1688 in the UK. There are enough parallels between that...