The Angry Bear

The most complicated election in modern history is coming — soon. Are we prepared? via @BostonGlobe – September 20 A TEST FOR DEMOCRACY Experts worry about a nightmare election during a pandemic marred by disenfranchisement and chaos, followed by an acrimonious legal and political dispute over the results that would test the nation’s democratic resolve. … (A lengthy article, in six parts.) Chapter 1 – A history of disenfranchisement Chapter 2 – Fear and...

2019: the year that the late economic expansion finally bore fruit for nearly all of society Yesterday  (Sept. 16) the Census Bureau released its 2019 information concerning median household income and poverty rates. Unfortunately, this data is always released in September of the following year, so is already somewhat stale. Just for example, since the information is collected between February and April of the following year, we may not get complete...

The Danger Of Fascism With The Death Of RBG  I try to avoid these terms like “fascism,” but it has become clear that Donald J. Trump actively seeks to become an at least authoritarian leader of the US, indeed openly arguing that the Constitution’s limit of only two terms should not hold for him.  We face a clear danger of a contested election that may end up in the Supreme Court. If Trump can put a flunky into the court before the election we may have...

by New Deal democrat August housing permits and starts bode well for 2021 economy  As I mentioned yesterday, August housing starts and permits were reported. Since they are important long leading indicators, I promised an update. And here it is, up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and helps reward me with a penny or two for my efforts. ...

I understood how some combinations of drugs work in attacking Covid-19 with one drug acting as an ionophore allowing another drug to enter a cell and attach to Covid RNA stopping its replication. I found this nice chart on National Geographic offering up an educational semi -medical and microbiologist depiction of how Moderna’s new vaccine mRNA gives the human body the ability to attack Covid.  I duplicated the chart with the original wording on Power...

What about all the forest fires in the West? The most proximate cause of these fires is high temperatures along with associated lightning and high winds; both of which, directly or indirectly, can easily ignite a fire in tinder dry forests. Beyond beyond being dry, many western forest are far from being healthy. There are large areas in the southern Sierra Nevada Range where the forest are dead and gone; they were the first to go. There is less damage to...

Real retail sales gains join industrial production in sharp deceleration Two days ago we saw that gains in industrial production had decelerated sharply in August. This morning we saw the same thing with real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators. Nominal retail sales were up +0.6% in August. Meanwhile, July’s reading was revised downward by -0.3%. Since in July and August consumer inflation was up +0.6% and +0.4%, respectively, that means revised...

In Jones v USPS, the Postal Service provided weekly service performance data since the beginning of the year. This is the most complete picture of on-time performance that we’ve seen since the mail delays became an issue earlier this summer. The data set is discussed in this post. There was also a hearing today in the Jones case. We hope to have more on that later. In the Washington case, an amicus brief was filed by the County of Santa Clara, the City of...

Industrial production improves in August, but with sharp deceleration If the jobs report is the Queen of Coincident Indicators, industrial production is the King. It, more than any other metric, is found at the turning points where recessions both begin and end. This morning’s report of industrial production for August shows that the recovery from the bottom of the coronavirus recession has come close to stalling out. Overall industrial production grew...