The Angry Bear

The Henry Ford Hospital Group finished its observational study using HCQ, HCQ+AZT, and AZT in the treatment of Covid 19. At 4:30 AM (can’t sleep sometimes), I read it and this is difficult reading while yawning. The stats are within the text of the limited study. I am not going to put them in this brief recital of the study. My version is not all inclusive and I may have missed some issues or facts of importance. I invite you to read it and form your own...

June jobs report: the last hurrah of the wished-for “V-shaped” coronavirus recovery HEADLINES: 4,800,000 million jobs added. This makes up about 22% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. U3 unemployment rate improved 2.2% from 13.3% to 11.1%, compared with the January low of 3.5%. U6 underemployment rate improved 3.2% from 21.2% to 18.0%, compared with the January low of 6.9%. Those on temporary layoff declined 4,778,000 to 10.565 million....

Wildly Off Forecasts? The macroeconomic forecasting business has become quite unhinged in the current situation, with existing models seeming to have their wheels coming off as old relationships simply do not hold and reported data seems unreliable and going in all sorts of directions.  We have already seen this happen regarding forecasts that were made for the May employment numbers, with most forecasters projecting employment declines that would have...

Equivalence by Ken Melvin These two things are not the same. Giving a woman the right of choice doesn’t deny others that right of choice; makes no imposition on the rights of others. Denying a woman the right of choice imposes the will of others upon her. When is it lawful for some members of a society to impose their will upon others? What right has the State to impose its will upon its citizens? When it is the writ of law. A State can declare acts to...

Kind of a big deal because Oklahomans rejected Trunp’s Medicaid and Republican block grant-program which would be more vulnerable to cuts of Federal funding.  It is unfortunate Oklahoma did not get on board with the ACA Medicaid expansion as 100% of the costs of the Medicaid expansion from 2014 – 2016 and 90% there after. I could never understand the cold-hearted logic of states in not expanding Medicaid. Much of the costs of expanding Medicaid now would...

Coronavirus dashboard for June 29: renewed exponential growth in infections, decline in deaths has stalled Total US infections: 2,549,069,  42,161 in last day Total US deaths: 125,803,  273 in last day Here is the regional breakdown of the 7 day average of new cases per capita: There is renewed exponential growth in the South and West. The Midwest also is beginning to look bad. Also, here is some more evidence that, when you recklessly reopen, and...

(Dan here…David offers a different sort of presentation from the normal for AB. Interesting?…) I’m going on vacation for a few weeks, so I am interrupting my normal blogging for something different. (I’m not sure if you — or anyone — is interested in my Marshall 2020 Project posts, but I’m doing it for myself — and its a good distraction from every day crazy ? Anyways… I’d love to answer your questions about coronavirus, elections, jobs, trade, the...

The US Presidential election as forecast by State polling: tending towards a Biden blowout? Last week I posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days. There has been extensive polling in the past week, so I have updated the map. Here’s how it works: – States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as...