The Angry Bear

by Steve Roth  (at Asymptosis) I just had occasion, in replying to a correspondent, to reiterate much of the thinking in my recent MMT Conference presentation. I thought it might be a useful and comprehensible form for some readers, so I’m reproducing it here. I’ve also explained this at somewhat painful length here. Correct me if I am wrong but what you are saying extends MMT into the private sector. The govt boosts balance sheets with stimulative fiscal...

The Unsolved Riddle of Poverty Reduction A submission to the B.C. Poverty Reduction Strategy engagement process March 23. 2018 “What makes one poor is not the lack of means. The poor person, sociologically speaking, is the individual who receives assistance because of the lack of means.” – Georg Simmel “A tight labor market is important for all workers, but especially for historically disadvantaged groups.” – Janelle Jones, Economic Policy Institute...

My Masters is from Loyola University Chicago. Stopped by for a visit with my Econ Prof as well as the school Dean and to see their new buildings. Smaller school and no more than 16,000 total. [embedded content] Go Loyola University . . . Last time in the Sweet 16 1985. Last time winning NCAA 1963.

 I pour some cold water on 2018 midterm overoptimism In the wake of Conor Lamb’s election victory in Pennsylvania last Tuesday night, some Democratic partisans are suggesting that every GOP-held seat from a district that is less than trump +20% is in play. Hold your horses. The results of last June’s special election in Georgia, in which GOPer Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff show that there is a roadmap to the GOP minimizing their losses in...

JOLTS revisions paint brighter labor market picture Last Friday’s JOLTS report for January included some important revisions, particularly with regard to hiring.  So let’s take a closer look.As a refresher, unlike the jobs report, which tabulates the net gain or loss of hiring over firing, the JOLTS report breaks the labor market down into openings, hirings, firings, quits, and total separations. I pay little attention to “job openings,” which can...

By Jeff Soplop Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, and the Economics of Privacy Cambridge Analytica – the data firm that provided consulting services for the Trump Campaign – has come under intense scrutiny for the firm’s capture and exploitation of vast quantities of user data from Facebook. These practices have added new urgency to questions about how information is collected online and how to protect users’ privacy rights. From The New York Times: “The firm...

Import and export growth and an expanding trade deficit do not need a strong dollar. We have had some discussions about dollar weakness and questions for those of us who expected the federal deficit to lead to a larger current account deficit through a strong dollar. I’ve looked at the data in a different way and now wonder if we really need a change in the dollar to achieve a larger current account deficit.   If you look at real imports and exports you...

Prime age labor force participation: disability and homemaking decline About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on various reasons for the relatively low labor force participation by prime age individuals, and its effect on wages; In my post summing up that study I wrote: A major element of the participation rate is comparison with other alternatives to being in the labor force. Two alternatives to labor participation appear to have had a...

Back when he was a conservative (and didn’t just play one on TV) David Brooks specialized in the ecological inference fallacy. He tried to argue that the Democratic party was the elite party, because Democratic “blue” states are wealthier than red states. He wrote as if all people in blue states were upper middle class as he and all the people he knows are. This is passé. Current conservatives just replace data with prejudice. For example, someone...