Lars P. Syll

A freedom fighter’s speech to European Parliament .[embedded content]

Use of covariates in RCTs (wonkish) .[embedded content]

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How to make good decisions in a radically uncertain world .[embedded content] To understand real-world decisions and unforeseeable changes in behaviour, ergodic probability distributions are of no avail. In a world full of genuine uncertainty — where real historical time rules the roost — the probabilities that ruled the past are not necessarily those that will rule the future. Time is what prevents everything from happening at once. To simply assume that...

A day that will live forever in infamy in European history How do you grieve for a nation? I don’t know. But one thing I do know is that February 24th 2022 is one of the saddest days I and all my brothers and sisters in Ukraine have ever experienced. The verdict of history will be harsh. .[embedded content]

Bayes vs classical statistical p-testing .[embedded content] [For more on the RCT referred to in the video, take a look here. Mortality numbers are, of course, important, but so is the fact that among the 241 patients who received the drug, 52 developed severe illness, compared to 43 of 249 patients who did not take the drug … ]

MMT and ‘monetary crankery’ MMTists often like to position themselves as the only ones to properly understand the ‘operational realities’ of modern monetary systems. Ironically, many of the claims made by MMTists on this topic are misleading at best. One common rhetorical tactic that I’ve noticed they employ, which often catches their critics out, is to use the term ‘government’ in a way that’s different typically from how it is used in mainstream...

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Dynamic and static interpretations of regression coefficients When econometric and statistical textbooks present simple (and multiple) regression analysis for cross-sectional data, they often do it with regressions like “regress test score (y) on study hours (x)” and get the result y = constant + slope coefficient*x + error term. When speaking of increases or decreases in x in these interpretations, we have to remember that it is a question of...

Never seek to tell thy love [embedded content] Listening to the choral music on Armonico Consort’s Naked Byrd Two anthology is an unending delight. One of my favorite albums.