Lars P. Syll

In most econometrics textbooks the authors give an interpretation of a linear regression such as Y = a + bX, saying that a one-unit increase in X (years of education) will cause a b unit increase in Y (wages). Dealing with time-series regressions this may well be OK. The problem is that this ‘dynamic’ interpretation of b is standardly also given as the ‘explanation’ of the slope coefficient for cross-sectional data. But in that case, the only increase that can generally come...

In the late 80s half of 25-34 year-olds owned their own home. Now, only a quarter do. This has changed how young people vote. But what exactly is the mechanism here? I’m not sure that it is simple mechanical self-interested support for specific policies … Instead, what’s going on is a change of identity. In the 80s, many young people identified themselves as property-owners and voted accordingly. Today, they see themselves as propertyless and so vote Labour. There’s a reason...

Low interest rates and leveraged loans — a dangerous combination A la longue, l’environnement de taux d’intérêt très bas a fini par désorienter les investisseurs et les professionnels des marchés financiers. Puisque placer de l’argent dans des fonds obligataires ne rapporte quasiment rien et que de nombreux titres s’échangent désormais sur des niveaux de taux de rendement négatifs, les hedge funds, mais aussi de grandes compagnies d’assurances et des fonds...

 [embedded content]

No reality, please. We’re economists! Mathematics, especially through the work of David Hilbert, became increasingly viewed as a discipline properly concerned with providing a pool of frameworks for possible realities. No longer was mathematics seen as the language of (non-social) nature, abstracted from the study of the latter. Rather, it was conceived as a practice concerned with formulating systems comprising sets of axioms and their deductive...

Schwarzer Tag in der deutschen Geschichte  [embedded content]

Although most social scientists can recite the formal definitions of the various regression assumptions, many have little appreciation of the substantive meanings of these assumptions. And unless the meanings of these assumptions are understood, regression analysis almost inevitably will be a rigid exercise in which a handful of independent variables are cavalierly inserted into a standard linear additive regression and coefficients are estimated. Although such an exercise may...

 [embedded content]

Friedrich Nietzsche — von Rechtsextremen missbraucht Heute gibt es rechte Wortführer, die Donald Trump allen Ernstes als Übermenschen à la Nietzsche bezeichnen. Doch für Nietzsche selbst hätte Trump eher das Gegenteil verkörpert. Machtwütige Manager, die rastlos um die Welt jetten, hätte er als Sklaven gesehen. Eher wäre Greta Thunberg, die unbeirrbare Vorkämpferin der Fridays-for-Future-Bewegung, ein Übermensch in seinem Sinne. In Also sprach Zarathustra...

 [embedded content]