Lars P. Syll

The tractability hoax in modern economics While the paternity of the theoretical apparatus underlying the new neoclassical synthesis in macro is contested, there is wide agreement that the methodological framework was largely architected by Robert Lucas … Bringing a representative agent meant foregoing the possibility to tackle inequality, redistribution and justice concerns. Was it deliberate? How much does this choice owe to tractability? What...

Marx predicted the present crisis — and points the way out Marx and Engels based their manifesto on a touchingly simple answer: authentic human happiness and the genuine freedom that must accompany it. For them, these are the only things that truly matter. Their manifesto does not rely on strict Germanic invocations of duty, or appeals to historic responsibilities to inspire us to act. It does not moralise, or point its finger. Marx and Engels attempted to...

Sometimes we do not know because we cannot know Some time ago, Bank of England’s Andrew G Haldane and Benjamin Nelson presented a paper with the title Tails of the unexpected. The main message of the paper was that we should not let us be fooled by randomness: The normal distribution provides a beguilingly simple description of the world. Outcomes lie symmetrically around the mean, with a probability that steadily decays. It is well-known that repeated...

Es reicht. Es reicht. Es reicht.  [embedded content] Seit Jahren nun wird über den Antisemitismus in Deutschland als eine nicht hinzunehmende Zersetzung unseres Werte- und Gesellschaftsverständnisses gesprochen. Es gibt Sonntagsreden, Ermahnungen, und nun gibt es auch einen Antisemitismusbeauftragten, der zumindest symbolisch dieser Welle von Hass und Gewalt entgegentreten soll. Es ist naiv und schlicht zu glauben, dass das etwas verändert. Wenig ändern...

Björn Ranelid anser inte att Svenska Akademien är att betrakta som en intellektuell elit, utan beskriver samlingen av ledamöter som ”ett B- eller C-lag”. För att institutionen ska kunna överleva så måste det rensas upp och vädras ut på allvar. Om du själv skulle få frågan att sitta i akademien? – Svaret är absolut nej, jag är alldeles för känd. För mycket känd, berömd och älskad. SvT Advertisements...

DSGE models — overconfident macroeconomic story-telling A recent paper by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt (C.E.T.) on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGEs) has generated quite a reaction in the blogosphere … Bradford Delong points out that new Keynesian models were constructed to show that old Keynesian and old Monetarist policy conclusions were relatively robust, and not blown out of the water by rational expectations … The DSGE...

Efter att ha följt nationalekonomiprofessorn John Hasslers analys av vårbudgeten på SvT Forum tidigare idag, slog det mig att jag nog hört det här förut … [embedded content] Advertisements

Shortcomings of regression analysis Distinguished social psychologist Richard E. Nisbett has a somewhat atypical aversion to multiple regression analysis. In his Intelligence and How to Get It (Norton 2011) he writes: Researchers often determine the individual’s contemporary IQ or IQ earlier in life, socioeconomic status of the family of origin, living circumstances when the individual was a child, number of siblings, whether the family had a library card,...

 [embedded content] Advertisements

Model builders face a constant temptation to make things more complicated than necessary because this makes them appear more capable than they really are. Remember that a model is not the truth. It is a lie to help you get your point across. And in the case of modeling economic risk, your model is a lie about others, who are probably lying themselves. And what’s worse than a simple lie? A complicated lie. Advertisements...