Lars P. Syll

The Greater Fool Theory  [embedded content] Guess those guys forgot to read Nassim Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness …​ Advertisements

Don’t believe economic myths. Get the truth!  [embedded content] Advertisements

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis The really interesting questions about the Efficient Markets Hypothesis — at least when discussed by mainstream economists — usually drown in “the model is the message” pseudoscientific mumbo-jumbo of four-factor models with two mispricing factors being better-performing than three-factor models, blah, blah, blah … Diane Coyle has a much more accurate view of what it’s all about: I would defend using the assumption of...

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Great poem that helped Nelson Mandela keep hope alive during 27 years in prison.  [embedded content] Advertisements

Nationalekonom varnar för bostadsbubbla En inte helt obekant ekonom uttalar sig här om situationen på dagens bomarknad. Advertisements

Data clusters are everywhere, even in random data. Someone who looks for an explanation will inevitably find one, but a theory that fits a data cluster is not persuasive evidence. The found explanation needs to make sense, and it needs to be tested with uncontaminated data. Similarly, someone who fires enough bullets at enough targets is bound to hit​ one. A researcher who tests hundreds of theories is bound to find evidence supporting at least one. Such evidence is...

Empirical economics and statistical power How credible is empirical economics? Is empirical economics adequately powered? Many suspect that statistical power is routinely low in empirical economics. However, to date, there has been no large-scale survey of statistical power widely across empirical economics. The main objectives of this article are to fill this gap, investigate the implications of low power on the magnitude of likely bias and recommend...