Lars P. Syll

Observational studies vs. RCTs  [embedded content]

Murray Rothbard on Adam Smith Adam Smith (1723-90) is a mystery in a puzzle wrapped in an enigma. The mystery is the enormous and unprecedented gap between Smith’s exalted reputation and the reality of his dubious contribution to economic thought … The problem is not simply that Smith was not the founder of economics. The problem is that he originated nothing that was true, and that whatever he originated was wrong; that, even in an age that had fewer...

Probability calculus is no excuse for forgetfulness When we cannot accept that the observations, along the time-series available to us, are independent, or cannot by some device be divided into groups that can be treated as independent, we get into much deeper water. For we have then, in strict logic, no more than one observation, all of the separate items having to be taken together. For the analysis of that the probability calculus is useless; it does not...

Just idag är jag stark  [embedded content]

The search for heavy balls in economics One of the limitations with economics is the restricted possibility to perform experiments, forcing it to mainly rely on observational studies for knowledge of real-world economies. But still — the idea of performing laboratory experiments holds a firm grip of our wish to discover (causal) relationships between economic ‘variables.’ If we only could isolate and manipulate variables in controlled environments, we would...

Economic growth and the size of the ‘private sector’ Economic growth has since long interested economists. Not least, the question of which factors are behind high growth rates has been in focus. The factors usually pointed at are mainly economic, social and political variables. In an interesting study from the University of  Helsinki, Tatu Westling has expanded the potential causal variables to also include biological and sexual variables. In  the report...

Milton Friedman’s critique of econometrics Tinbergen’s results cannot be judged by ordinary tests of statistical significance. The reason is that the variables with which he winds up, the particular series measuring these variables, the leads and lags, and various other aspects of the equations besides the particular values of the parameters (which alone can be tested by the usual statistical technique) have been selected after an extensive process of trial...

Economists — nothing but a bunch of idiots savants Let’s be honest: no one knows what is happening in the world economy today. Recovery from the collapse of 2008 has been unexpectedly slow … Policymakers don’t know what to do. They press the usual (and unusual) levers and nothing happens. Quantitative easing was supposed to bring inflation “back to target.” It didn’t. Fiscal contraction was supposed to restore confidence. It didn’t … Most economics students...

Econometrics textbooks — vague and confused causal analysis Econometric textbooks fall on all sides of this debate. Some explicitly ascribe causal meaning to the structural equation while others insist that it is nothing more than a compact representation of the joint probability distribution. Many fall somewhere in the middle – attempting to provide the econometric model with sufficient power to answer economic problems but hesitant to anger traditional...

Proper use of regression analysis Level I regression analysis does not require any assumptions about how the data were generated. If one wants more from the data analysis, assumptions are required. For a Level II regression analysis, the added feature is statistical inference: estimation, hypothesis tests and confidence intervals. When the data are produced by probability sampling from a well-defined population, estimation, hypothesis tests and confidence...