Lars P. Syll

[embedded content] David Bowie, Leonard Cohen, Umberto Eco, Alan Rickman, Gene Wilder, Andrzej Wajda. RIP

Keynes’ critique of econometrics — the nodal point In my judgment, the practical usefulness of those modes of inference, here termed Universal and Statistical Induction, on the validity of which the boasted knowledge of modern science depends, can only exist—and I do not now pause to inquire again whether such an argument must be circular—if the universe of phenomena does in fact present those peculiar characteristics of atomism and limited variety which...

Mathematical economics — a contraption of empty formalism My impression [is] that nothing emerges at the end which has not been introduced expressly or tacitly at the beginning is quite wrong … It seems to me essential in an article of this sort to put in the fullest and most explicit manner at the beginning the assumptions which are made and the methods by which the price indexes are derived; and then to state at the end what substantially novel...

The non-existence of Paul Krugman’s ‘Keynes/Hicks macroeconomic theory’ Paul Krugman has in numerous posts on his blog tried to defend “the whole enterprise of Keynes/Hicks macroeconomic theory” and especially his own somewhat idiosyncratic version of IS-LM. The main problem is simpliciter that there is no such thing as a Keynes-Hicks macroeconomic theory! So, let us get some things straight. There is nothing in the post-General Theory writings of Keynes...

Bayesianism — a dangerous superficiality The bias toward the superficial and the response to extraneous influences on research are both examples of real harm done in contemporary social science by a roughly Bayesian paradigm of statistical inference as the epitome of empirical argument. For instance the dominant attitude toward the sources of black-white differential in United States unemployment rates (routinely the rates are in a two to one ratio) is...

What inferential leverage do statistical models provide? Experimental (and non-experimental) data are often analyzed using a regression model of the form Yi =a+bZi +Wiβ+εi, where Wi is a vector of control variables for subject i, while a, b, and β are parameters (if Wi is 1×p, then β is p×1). The effect of treatment is measured by b. The disturbances εi would be assumed independent across subjects, with expectation 0 and constant variance. The Zi and Wi...

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The trouble with econometrics In the process of translating a theory into implications about data, so many auxiliary assumptions are made that all contact with reality is lost. Any conflict can be resolved by adjusting the auxiliary assumptions. For example, suppose we want to learn if a production process satisfy diminishing, constant, or increasing returns to scale. The issue is of substantial significance from the point of view of theory. In carrying out...

This genuinely original book, with its lively and engaging argumentation, is a must read for students of economics who want to remedy the deficiencies of mainstream economics as it is practiced today. Scrutinizing the weird make-believe world of mainstream economics and its narrative dogmatism, determinism and atomism, it constitutes a powerful plaidoyer for real pluralism in economics. Fullbrook brings bold new perspectives on the logic of economic choice, rationality,...

Socialdemokratins svek mot den svenska skolan Under flera decennier hade det förefallit som om den likvärdiga gemensamma skolan var allmänt accepterad. Men det var, när allt kom omkring, bara skenbart. När de nyliberala vindarna började blåsa allt hårdare på 80-talet yppades ett ”window of opportunity” att vrida klockan tillbaka, nu med hjälp av den alltmer kraftfulla marknadsideologin och med valfrihet som slagord. En både väljarmässigt och ideologiskt...