Lars P. Syll

The Rivers of Belief .[embedded content]

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The Keynes-Tinbergen debate on econometrics It is widely recognized but often tacitly neglected that all statistical approaches have intrinsic limitations that affect the degree to which they are applicable to particular contexts … John Maynard Keynes was perhaps the first to provide a concise and comprehensive summation of the key issues in his critique of Jan Tinbergen’s book Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories … Keynes’s intervention has, of...

The randomization tools economists use Preference-based discrimination is based on the fact that, for example, employers, customers, or colleagues have a dislike for those who belong to a certain group. Such discrimination can lead to wage differences between discriminated and non-discriminated groups. However, competition can undermine these wage differences, as non-discriminatory employers will make greater profits and drive discriminatory employers out...

He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother (personal) .[embedded content] In loving memory of my older brother Peter Pålsson (1955-2001) But in dreams, I can hear your name. And in dreams, We will meet again. When the seas and mountains fall And we come to end of days, In the dark I hear a call Calling me there I will go there And back again.

Contrary to the tenets of orthodox economists, contemporary research suggests that, rather than seeking always to maximise our personal gain, humans still remain reasonably altruistic and selfless. Nor is it clear that the endless accumulation of wealth always makes us happier. And when we do make decisions, especially those to do with matters of principle, we seem not to engage in the sort of rational “utility-maximizing” calculus that orthodox economic models take as a...

Diskriminering — en fråga om preferenser eller information? Preferensbaserad diskriminering bygger på att exempelvis arbetsgivare, kunder eller medarbetare hyser en motvilja mot dem som tillhör en viss grupp. Sådan diskriminering kan leda till löneskillnader mellan diskriminerade och icke-diskriminerade grupper. Löneskillnaderna kan emellertid undermineras av konkurrens, som gör att arbetsgivare utan diskriminerande preferenser kommer att göra större vinst...

Ed Leamer’s Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia is one of my favourite critiques of econometrics, and for the benefit of those who are not versed in the econometric jargon, this handy summary gives the gist of it in plain English: Most work in econometrics is — still — made on the assumption that the researcher has a theoretical model that is ‘true.’ Based on this belief of having a correct specification for an econometric model or running a regression, one proceeds as if the...

Non-manipulability and the limits of potential outcome models The Potential Outcome framework starts by defining the potential outcomes with reference to a manipulation. In doing so it makes a distinction between attributes or pre-treatment variables which are fixed for the units in the population, and causes, which are potentially manipulable. This is related to the connection between causal statements and randomized experiments. The causes are...