Mike Norman Economics

Markets and the economy are increasingly being characterized by one word: certainty. This is likely to worry some investors and market watchers who see over-confidence in the future as a sign that things are about to change. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan indicated that while overall confidence in the economy is sitting right near a 13-year high, “what has changed recently is the degree of certainty with which consumers hold their...

This new working paper attempts to address some of the main problems of the European Union today. The main thesis is that the Weltanschauung and the economic narrative on which the European project has been based have changed radically since the inception of the European Project, from one conducive to convergence and cohesion to another which is conducive to divergence and, in the last instance – I shall argue – to a form of internal colonialism towards the economic periphery. The field of...

One quite often runs into arguments that rely on assuming full employment, and then relating that policy decisions. In my view, such arguments are fundamentally weak; we need to refer to actual model results to discuss policy. In this article, I explain why an attempt to apply a NAIRU argument to a Job Guarantee is misguided. The analysis is unusual: instead of discussing a single model, the behaviour of an entire class of reasonable economic models is analysed. This reflects the attitude...

Taking no chances in a dangerous world, with NATO policy being to encircle Russia and to destabilize it internally.  Of course, the West will see this a gearing up for an invasion of Europe and the corporate media will picture it as the resurgence of the Red Menace, calling for an military buildup and renewed arms race. Last Monday, British Prime Minister Theresa May said the UK would lead a response to counter “Russian hostility.” “We know what you are doing,” she said. Meanwhile, China...

Productivity is a problem and conventional British economists don't have a theory that explains it. So what to do? Oh, right, more blood letting (austerity).Stumbling and MumblingNotes on productivityChris Dillow | Investors Chronicle

Punxsutawney Phil Hammond, the UK chancellor, presented his Budget yesterday and declared five more years of austerity for Britain. As was to be expected. One doesn’t even have to go into the details of the Budget to understand that it is a dead end street for both the country and for Theresa May’s Tory party.So why the persistent focus on austerity while it becomes clearer every day that it is suffocating the British economy? There are many answers to that. Sheer incompetence is a major...

Sea level rising faster than anticipated by older models. A new model (2002) explains the acceleration.  Coastal land value?Flassbeck EconomicsThe doomsday glacier problem Will Denayer

When giving courses in the philosophy of science yours truly has often had David Papineau’s book Philosophical Devices (OUP 2012) on the reading list. Overall it is a good introduction to many of the instruments used when performing methodological and science theoretical analyses of economic and other social sciences issues. Unfortunately, the book has also fallen prey to the randomization hype that scourges sciences nowadays.... Lars P. Syll’s BlogRandomization — a philosophical device...

Maybe the British Labour Party could get Nancy Pelosi to do some stupid tweets for them as well. She is an expert at it – see my blog – When neoliberals masquerade as progressives. She thinks it is smart progressive politics to post tweets criticising her political opponents for a policy that “explodes the deficit … dumping … debt on every man, woman & child in America”. A fallacious argument. But moreover, a very stupid strategic argument because it fails to educate the public on what...

Eric Schmidt, the executive chairman of Google’s parent company, Alphabet, confirmed this weekend that the world’s largest Internet company is, in close coordination with the state, manipulating search results to censor sites critical of the US government. Responding to a question about the “manipulation of information” on the Internet during an appearance at the Halifax International Security Forum, Schmidt announced that Google is working on algorithms that will “de-rank” Russian-based...