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Mike Norman Economics

KtovKurse — Communist leader dispels new Russian budget as “oligarch orientated”

Communist Party leader, Gennady Zyuganov, called the draft federal budget for 2018-2020 "a budget of the oligarchy", which will increase stagnation and poverty.... According to Zyuganov, the current budget policy "creeps of the old Gaidar-Chubais [liberal] reforms [under Yeltsin that plunged ordinary Russians into poverty]. It does not smell of modernization, nor a breakthrough for the future. "... Zyuganov's Communist Party enjoys the second most popular rating in the Russian political...

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Jason Smith — Corporate taxes and unscientific economists

Another takedown. But let's take this result at face value. So now we have a largely model-independent finding that to first order the effect of corporate tax cuts is increased wages. The scientific thing to do is not to continue arguing about the model, but to in fact compare the result to data. What should we expect? We should a large change in aggregate wages when there are changes in corporate tax rates — in either direction. Therefore the corporate tax increases in the 1993 tax law...

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Zero Hedge In Shocking, Viral Interview, Qatar Confesses Secrets Behind Syrian War

A television interview of a top Qatari official confessing the truth behind the origins of the war in Syria is going viral across Arabic social media during the same week a leaked top secret NSA document was published which confirms that the armed opposition in Syria was under the direct command of foreign governments from the early years of the conflict. And according to a well-known Syria analyst and economic adviser with close contacts in the Syrian government, the explosive interview...

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Andrew Gelman — My favorite definition of statistical significance

From my 2009 paper with Weakliem: Throughout, we use the term statistically significant in the conventional way, to mean that an estimate is at least two standard errors away from some “null hypothesis” or prespecified value that would indicate no effect present. An estimate is statistically insignificant if the observed value could reasonably be explained by simple chance variation, much in the way that a sequence of 20 coin tosses might happen to come up 8 heads and 12 tails; we would say...

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Kaivey- The Guardian view on conspiracy theories: convenient fictions

The Guardian wrote a disparaging editorial about conspiracy theories and it smirked at people who believe in them, so I wrote this in the Guardian's Comment is Free section underneath: 'The biggest conspiracy theory going about at the moment is that the Russians hacked the US general election.' The Guardian moderators soon afterwards removed my comment. You see, only silly people hold conspiracy theories, not sensible lefties like The Guardian. But where are the facts for the Russian...

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