Mike Norman Economics

While Republican leaders are confident their party can set aside its differences to resolve the latest debt-limit impasse before the clock runs out sometime between late September and mid-October, investors are shying away from Treasury bills earlier than they have in the past.... BloombergU.S. Default? Unlikely, But Bond Traders Are Taking No Chances Brian Chappatta and Alex Harris

North Korea is not going to launch a first strike on America or its allies with nuclear weapons. To understand this, you don’t need to know anything about the history of U.S.-North Korea relations, or the throw weight of intercontinental ballistic missiles, or even where North Korea is. All you need to know is human history. And history says that small, poor, weak countries tend not to start wars with gigantic, wealthy, powerful countries — especially when doing so will obviously result...

I have had plenty of criticisms of the Fed over the years. I am concerned that their model of inflation isn't working, and that their estimate of the natural rate of interest is too high. But that type of criticism is a far cry from describing the institution as the "deep state." We have seen time and time again that fomenting that kind of thought only leads to bloodshed.... Tim Duy's Fed WatchDon't Add To The FireTim Duy

James Risen, who, as a best-selling author and New York Times reporter, has broken some of the biggest stories of the post-9/11 period, is joining The Intercept as our senior national security correspondent, based in Washington, D.C. Risen will write a reported column on national security and other national issues, as well as help to lead The Intercept’s investigative reporting efforts. Risen will have a unique dual leadership position at First Look Media, because in addition to his...

Class again. It affects everything. Stumbling and Mumbling The Social Mobility Lie Chris Dillow | Investors Chronicle

Information is the basis for our economic and financial decisions. As buyers, we collect information about products before entering into a transaction. As investors, the same goes for information about firms seeking our funds. This is information that sellers and fund-seeking firms typically have. But, when it is too difficult or too costly to collect information, markets function poorly or not at all. This form of asymmetric information―where two parties to a potential transaction have...

The two standard explanations for why labor’s share of output has fallen by 10 percent over the past 30 years are globalization (American workers are losing out to their counterparts in places like China and India) and automation (American workers are losing out to robots). Last year, however, a highly-cited Stigler Center paper by Simcha Barkai offered another explanation: an increase in markups. The capital share of GDP, which includes what companies spend on equipment like robots, is...

Now that the US Civil War 2.0 has broken out in violence, it is good to be aware of this. The background is given in the links Sandwichman provides at the beginning of the first post. The AltRight is livid that Gen. McMaster is cleaning house, and it seems that Gen. Kelley is too, having sidelined Steve Bannon.EconospeakThe Higgins Memo, Anders Breivik and the Lyndon LaRouche Cult The “Narratives” of Higgins’s “Warfare” SandwichmanThe full text of the memo that Sandwichman links to at FP...

Policy models and their implications — not just economic.The Case for Concerted ActionAlex Izurieta On UN Global Policy ModelV. Ramanan

The unexpectedly strong GDP print was driven by a 9.9% jump in private non-residential investment as well as an striking 21.9% annualized surge in public investment as some of the public works spending included in last year’s economic stimulus package starting to emerge; meanwhile exports declined.... Zero HedgeJapan GDP Surges 4%, Most In Two Years, On Jump In Government Stimulus Spending Tyler Durden