Mike Norman Economics

AbstractThis paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an uncon- ditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. Significantly, we also find conditional inferiority, with some exceptions. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric – Phillips curve forecasts tend to be...

American soft power takes another hit, coming soon after the torchlight march in Charlottesville reminiscent of the rise of the Nazis in Germany in the lead up to WWII. The London EconomicTrump pardons Arpaio: This is his human rights record Jack Peat Donald Trump’s pardon elevates Arpaio once again to the pantheon of those who see institutional racism as something that made America great. Arizona Republic Editorial

George Will is a columnist rather than an economist. One might think that this is a mistake instead of a lie. But Will is a professional and the Washington Post is a premiere medium where professionalism is presumed. If this was not a deliberate lie spreading fake news as propaganda, either Will was misinformed and did not realize it, or the Washington Post failed to in performing due diligence in fact-checking. Another fail.Beat the PressSupporters of Trade Deals, LIke George Will and the...

Must-read for anyone interested in MMT.Lars P. Syll’s BlogAbba Lerner and functional financeLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Weekend reading. Mat Taibbi sees the media as the sole factor, or major factor at least, in the rise of Trump. In my view, there are many factors involved, not the least of which is the state of the American character. This would not be happening if there were not appetite for it.Rolling StoneThe Media Is the Villain – for Creating a World Dumb Enough for Trump Matt Taibbi

As the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) convention wound to its close at the beginning of August, I was struck with the historical strangeness of what I witnessed. Decades after proclamations of the "end of history" and critiques of institutional hierarchies and vertical structures of power, here were nearly 1,000 mostly young activists gathered in a giant lecture hall doing the work of building a radical political party: taking votes, making motions, electing a national leadership,...

The latest iteration in the controversy over theory of money, money creation, and historical origins of money use.Social Democracy For The 21St Century: A Post Keynesian PerspectiveLarry White on the Origins of Coined Money: A CritiqueLord Keynes

Government spending in a recession can boost a country’s economy without permanently bloating its public debt, even if the debt is already quite large, researchers told an influential group of central bankers in Jackson, Wyoming, on Saturday. “Expansionary fiscal policies adopted when the economy is weak may not only stimulate output but also reduce debt-to-GDP ratios,” University of California, Berkeley, professors Alan Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko said in a paper presented at the...

Algorithms are opinions embedded in code. It’s really different from what you think most people think of algorithms. They think algorithms are objective and true and scientific. That’s a marketing trick. It’s also a marketing trick to intimidate you with algorithms, to make you trust and fear algorithms because you trust and fear mathematics. A lot can go wrong when we put blind faith in big data. Naked CapitalismData Scientist Cathy O’Neil: “Algorithms Are Opinions Embedded in Code” Cathy...

My Kindle e-book is out now! Here's the blurb: A Random Physicist Takes on Economics is a novella-length critique of economic methodology from an outsider's perspective as well as a proposal for a new way of understanding supply and demand and rational agents as emergent concepts from the complex behavior of real people. After a brief biographical introduction on how he ended up doing economic research, author, blogger and physicist Jason Smith leverages "irrational" random agents and...