Prime, Policy Research in Macroeconomics

Is our biggest worry inflation? No, our biggest worry is a fall in employment, investment and income. Inflation is caused by the economy ‘overheating’. Wage and price inflation arises when economic activity (investment, employment, income) exceeds the capacity of the economy.  Put simply, inflation most often arises in conditions of full employment, when incomes are high and rising and when investment in new jobs, speculation and the creation of new assets, surges.  Many point to the 1970s...

In 2020, governments all over Europe and beyond enacted unprecedented fiscal stimulus to keep their economies afloat amidst the pandemic. By the end of the year, a country like France will have engaged or guaranteed at least EUR 300 billion, the equivalent of four years of income tax receipts. Institutions of the European Union (EU) also rightly stepped up to the challenge.Of particular importance has been the response of the European Central Bank (ECB) which launched several bond-purchasing...

In 2020, governments all over Europe and beyond enacted unprecedented fiscal stimulus to keep their economies afloat amidst the pandemic. By the end of the year, a country like France will have engaged or guaranteed at least EUR 300 billion, the equivalent of four years of income tax receipts. Institutions of the European Union (EU) also rightly stepped up to the challenge.Of particular importance has been the response of the European Central Bank (ECB) which launched several bond-purchasing...

In 2020, governments all over Europe and beyond enacted unprecedented fiscal stimulus to keep their economies afloat amidst the pandemic. By the end of the year, a country like France will have engaged or guaranteed at least EUR 300 billion, the equivalent of four years of income tax receipts. Institutions of the European Union (EU) also rightly stepped up to the challenge. Of particular importance has been the response of the European Central Bank (ECB) which launched several...

There are two global forces positively thriving – despite today’s crises. They are the lethal coronavirus and the world’s billionaires – engaged in a form of ‘co-production’. Why are they thriving? And why do their interests align so happily? The ‘interests’ of a lethal virus are clear. The microbe’s supreme ambition is to spread as fast as possible, infect millions of humans, accelerate the process of transmission and evolve into a global pandemic. Never mind the consequences. How can this...

There are two global forces positively thriving – despite today’s crises. They are the lethal coronavirus and the world’s billionaires – engaged in a form of ‘co-production’. Why are they thriving? And why do their interests align so happily?The ‘interests’ of a lethal virus are clear. The microbe’s supreme ambition is to spread as fast as possible, infect millions of humans, accelerate the process of transmission and evolve into a global pandemic.Never mind the consequences.How can this...

There are two global forces positively thriving – despite today’s crises. They are the lethal coronavirus and the world’s billionaires – engaged in a form of ‘co-production’. Why are they thriving? And why do their interests align so happily?The ‘interests’ of a lethal virus are clear. The microbe’s supreme ambition is to spread as fast as possible, infect millions of humans, accelerate the process of transmission and evolve into a global pandemic.Never mind the consequences.How can this...

In 2020, GDP per head of population fell, year on year, by a massive 10.5%. For me, that’s the  take-away statistic from last Friday’s GDP-related ‘data dump’ by ONS.  The level of GCDP per head (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) was £29,124.  This was almost identical to the level in 2009 (£29,098), at the peak of the global financial crisis, and otherwise the lowest on record since 2003. Of course, the extent of the decline is heavily down to the government’s  first lockdown restrictions,...

In 2020, GDP per head of population fell, year on year, by a massive 10.5%. For me, that’s the  take-away statistic from last Friday’s GDP-related ‘data dump’ by ONS.  The level of GCDP per head (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) was £29,124.  This was almost identical to the level in 2009 (£29,098), at the peak of the global financial crisis, and otherwise the lowest on record since 2003.  Of course, the extent of the decline is heavily down to the government’s  first lockdown...

In 2020, GDP per head of population fell, year on year, by a massive 10.5%. For me, that’s the  take-away statistic from last Friday’s GDP-related ‘data dump’ by ONS.  The level of GCDP per head (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) was £29,124.  This was almost identical to the level in 2009 (£29,098), at the peak of the global financial crisis, and otherwise the lowest on record since 2003. Of course, the extent of the decline is heavily down to the government’s  first lockdown restrictions,...