by Heinsberg corona study finally published Since i) a high degree of PCR testing was performed in this community by the health authorities during the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and ii) the outbreak was largely over, this community was chosen as an ideal site to estimate the real number of infected individuals. It is important to note that the infection rate in Gangelt is not representative for other regions in Germany or other countries. However, with the limitations discussed above, the IFR [infection fatality rate] calculated here remains a useful metric for other regions with higher or lower infection rates. If in a theoretical model the here calculated IFR is applied to Germany with currently approximately 6,575 SARS-CoV-2 associated deaths (May
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Heinsberg corona study finally published
Since i) a high degree of PCR testing was performed in this community by the health authorities during the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and ii) the outbreak was largely over, this community was chosen as an ideal site to estimate the real number of infected individuals. It is important to note that the infection rate in Gangelt is not representative for other regions in Germany or other countries. However, with the limitations discussed above, the IFR [infection fatality rate] calculated here remains a useful metric for other regions with higher or lower infection rates. If in a theoretical model the here calculated IFR is applied to Germany with currently approximately 6,575 SARS-CoV-2 associated deaths (May 2nd, 2020, RKI), the estimated number of infected in Germany would be higher than 1.8 Mio (i.e. 2.2% of the German population). It will be very important to determine the true average IFR for Germany. However, because of the currently low infection rate of approximately 2% (estimated based on IFR), an ELISA with 99% specificity will not provide reliable data. Therefore, under the current non-superspreading conditions, it is more reasonable to determine the IFR in high prevalence hotspots such as Heinsberg county. The data of the study reported here will serve as baseline for follow up studies on the delta of infections and deaths to identify the corresponding IFR under those changed conditions.
Interesting and important findings. But — there is always a but — we have to remember that here, as in economics, even if the study is ‘robust’ and ‘sound,’ there is always an external validity problem. Generalising the findings from a small municipality to all of Germany or the rest of the world is not sustainable. The uncertainties are too many. Or as Keynes would have said: “We simply do not know” …