by Most tables of the normal distribution stop at 3 standard distributions or, to state this differently, at the point were (assuming a stable world) the chance that an individual estimate of a variable is farther removed from the average of all estimated variables is 1:1000. Let’s call this the black swan point. Estimates further removed from the average are ‘black swans’. Such estimates might indicate that we’ve moved to a new situation with a new average. Ahem: arctic and antarctic sea ice, 13/11/2016, according to the NCIS:
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Most tables of the normal distribution stop at 3 standard distributions or, to state this differently, at the point were (assuming a stable world) the chance that an individual estimate of a variable is farther removed from the average of all estimated variables is 1:1000. Let’s call this the black swan point. Estimates further removed from the average are ‘black swans’. Such estimates might indicate that we’ve moved to a new situation with a new average. Ahem: arctic and antarctic sea ice, 13/11/2016, according to the NCIS:
