Tag Archives: Chinese economy

The expiration of US waivers on sanctions targeting Iran and its foreign trade partners ends this Thursday. This will affect India, China, Japan, S. Korea and Turkey. While China is currently the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil, both India and China have warned that such a step could destabilise the global energy market and the Middle East.... Sputnik InternationalIndia-China Oil Bloc Proposal a Good Step, Say Energy Analysts

AbstractThis paper focuses on the different development strategies of China and India, particularly regarding the role of manufacturing and services, for long-run productivity growth, external competitiveness and financial fragility. The findings appear to support the argument that productivity improvements in manufacturing drive productivity improvements in other sectors. They also substantiate previous findings that the Indian services-led growth trajectory has had limited success in...

The reason this is crucial is set out in the article below. It shows in a detailed way that it is investment, and not any other major factor in the economy, which controls China’s rate of economic growth – as it does in other major economies. In addition to its medium-term effect it was the fall in fixed investment which led to the economic slowdown in the second half of 2018, and the upturn which led to the good results in the first quarter of 2019 and in March in particular. Quantitative...

Seriously, this is a topic of a major article in the paper. The story is that low birth rates over the last four decades mean that fewer people will be entering the labor force and this is supposed to be really bad news. "The declining population could create an even greater burden on China’s economy and its labor force. With fewer workers in the future, the government could struggle to pay for a population that is growing older and living longer."A decline in the working-age population...

While China is not about to recapture double-digit GDP growth, that does not imply economic catastrophe. After four decades of rapid growth, a slowdown was inevitable, and if China readjusts its macroeconomic policy stance, it can prevent that slowdown from being excessively sharp.… This post is important because of who wrote it. Yu Yongding is considered to be one of the most knowledgeable Chinese economists and his views are watched and widely quoted. Project SyndicateA Makeover for...

Despite 40 years of unprecedented economic growth, Chinese leaders' efforts to promote their development model have run up against political suspicion. But it makes little sense for countries to reject outright the lessons of China’s economic miracle, and deepening Good observations and advice. Project SyndicateLearning from China Erik Berglöf, a former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, is Director of the Institute of Global Affairs at the London...

Interesting post, but I am skeptical of the conclusion that that China's "problem" is growing unproductive debt. All modern money is generated as a result of a credit-debit relationship that sums to zero economy-wide when the government is included. If government is considered exognenous, then endogenous credit-debits sum to zero and the government deficit is the nongovernment surplus, i.e., adds to accumulated nongovernment net financial assets in aggregate. What counts is 1) the...

In 1995, the late economist Gustav Ranis wrote that, “If there is one key to developmental success, it is avoiding the encrustation of ideas,” which is achieved through policymakers' “ever-increasing reliance on the responsiveness of large numbers of dispersed decision-makers.” That description suits China perfectly. Agility. Project SyndicateChina Deserves its Economic Success Zhang Jun | Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and Director of the China Center for Economic...

Chinese consumers are embracing credit. This has huge implications for increasing China's consumption to investment ratio, which needed for the transition from low-income, to middle-income to high-income country. This implies growth of the domestic economy and less dependence on the external sector. It will also bring China trade surplus more toward balance and over time likely into deficit as "the Chinese consumer" replaces "the American consumer" as the purchaser of last resort. And it's...

China moving toward fiscal austerity?Seeking AlphaChina Sectoral Flow Investment Assessment Alan Longbon