Friday , October 18 2019
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Tag Archives: data

The ladder of social science reasoning, 4 statements in increasing order of generality, or Why didn’t they say they were sorry when it turned out they’d messed up? — Andrew Gelman

Reinhart and Rogoff. Why didn't they take responsibility, a student asked Andrew Gelman. Statistics professor Gelman answers:  It wasn't actually about the data in the minds of R & R, so being wrong about it apparently made no significant difference to them. Empirical result? Meh.Rationalists, or just ideologues with a cognitive bias? Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceThe ladder of social science reasoning, 4 statements in increasing order of generality, or Why...

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IPA’s weekly links

The rest of the Jack Ryan pilot is 45 minutes of talking about clustering standard errors David McKenzie has a nice post and discussion on descriptive studies in development. In his back and forth with Lant in the comments he mentions the count of how many development econ studies in 14 journals in 2015 were RCTs (9.7%). Google introduced a data set search, which trawls for publicly available data sets, similarly to how Google Scholar works. Here they describe how it works and how to...

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IPA’s weekly links

Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. First, congratulations to some fantastic economists: Amy Finkelstein on her election to the National Academy of Sciences Pam Jakiela on her appointment as a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development Seema Jayachandran on becoming an editor of AEJ: Applied Economics Jessica Goldberg on becoming Associate Prof at the University of Maryland What a great week for the field (and sorry to the many I’ve probably missed). Mary...

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GDP growth in Latin America

Writing a paper on Latin America. Nothing particularly relevant to report. I was just checking the date. Many sources to get the data. I suggest both the World Bank Development Indicators and the Conference Board Total Economic Database. At any rate, below GDP growth from the Golden Age (after the Korean War and up to Debt crisis) to the Neoliberal Era (starting in the 1990s). Clearly growth has been more volatile and at lower rates. So much for the notion that Neoliberalism works.

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IPA’s weekly links

Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. First a word from my sponsor – IPA’s kind enough to let me use some time writing these links up almost every week for the last 2.5 years, but there’s no such thing as a free link. If you’d go to www.poverty-action.org/donate and help us make our end-of-year budget I’d appreciate it. And, I’ll draw up a few winners (at random of course) for your choice of a) a tote bag from Ghana (long story), b) a very cheap lunch with some of...

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IPA’s weekly links

Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. First a word from my sponsor – IPA’s kind enough to let me use some time writing these links up almost every week for the last 2.5 years, but there’s no such thing as a free link. If you’d go to www.poverty-action.org/donate and help us make our end-of-year budget I’d appreciate it. And, I’ll draw up a few winners (at random of course) for your choice of a) a tote bag from Ghana (long story), b) a very cheap lunch with...

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IPA’s weekly links

Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. First a word from my sponsor – IPA’s kind enough to let me use some time writing these links up almost every week for the last 2.5 years, but there’s no such thing as a free link. If you’d go to www.poverty-action.org/donate and help us make our end-of-year budget I’d appreciate it. And, I’ll draw up a few winners (at random of course) for your choice of a) a tote bag from Ghana (long story), b) a very cheap lunch with some of...

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Australia’s Economy is a House of Cards

By Matt Bar­rie & Craig Tin­dale. I recently watched the fed­eral trea­surer, Scott Mor­ri­son, proudly pro­claim that Aus­tralia was in “sur­pris­ingly good shape”. Indeed, Aus­tralia has just snatched the world record from the Nether­lands, achiev­ing its 104th quar­ter of growth with­out a reces­sion, mak­ing this achieve­ment the longest streak for any OECD coun­try since 1970. Aus­tralian GDP growth has been trend­ing down for over forty years Source: Trad­ing...

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Lars P. Syll — P-hacking and data dredging

I think there are two separate issues here that depend on intent. "P-hacking" likely implies intent, and that is not necessarily a factor in all cases, and it may well not be in many if not most cases. In some cases there may be intent to persuade by playing loose, or even to deceive. I recall that How to Lie with Statistics was required reading in the Stat 101 course I took over fifty years ago. But this is not the only issue. As Richard Feynman famously observed, science is about...

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