Tag Archives: economic modeling

So how do you make good predictions? I met “superforecaster” Michael Story, who was ranked 18th best among the 20,000 people who formed the Good Judgment team. The team took part in a competition conducted by the US intelligence community to find the world’s best forecasters. Launched in 2011, the four-year contest required the group to provide forecasts on 500 questions ranging from the future for oil prices to the financial outlook. The Good Judgment team won the tournament, reportedly...

One shoe fits all not a satisfactory method. The question then become now to chose the appropriate model for the task in advance rather than through hindsight when the future is enveloped in uncertainty.Stumbling and MumblingOn models & downs Chris Dillow | Investors Chronicle